Jacksonville vs. Bellarmine Prediction and Odds for ASUN Championship Game (Dolphins To Secure NCAA Tournament Bid)

Someone's hopes and dreams will be realized as the 21-9 Jacksonville Dolphins face the 19-13 Bellarmine Knights in the ASUN Championship Game at 5:00 PM EST.

Neither team is likely to secure an at-large bid to NCAA Tournament so it's win or go home today. Jacksonville has won 10 of 12 and have been stellar for bettors, going 14-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20.

Bellarmine, meanwhile, has won six of eight and secured a 76-73 overtime win over the Dolphins earlier this year.

Does value lie with the Knights to get a second-straight win over the Dolphins or will Jacksonville stay hot and secure a March Madness birth?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us find out:

Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Jacksonville +2.5 (-110)
• Bellarmine -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Jacksonville: +125
• Bellarmine: -145

Total:

• 121.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Prediction and Pick

Have you seen the GIF where the guy blinks in shock? That was me when I saw Jacksonville was an underdog in this matchup.

Bellarmine has been impressive, sure. They're in the 95th percentile in offensive rating over their last five games and had a swell upset victory over Liberty, but they're an absolute train-wreck defensively. The Knights rank in the 0 (!) percentile in both defensive rating and rebounding over that same time span.

Jacksonville is much more balanced, scoring in the 88th percentile in offensive rating and 78th in defensive over their past five games and are dominant on the glass, ranking in the 98th percentile in offensive rebounding. The Dolphins are in the 98th percentile in free throw rate and 97th in turnover rate over that stretch, so they'll generate opportunities at the line and protect the ball in a way Bellarmine just can't match.

The Knights have covered the spread just once in their last four as a favorite, and I think this line is an overreaction to their win over a beatable Liberty squad. Bellarmine protects the ball well but is in the 0 percentile in free throw attempts per game, so they won't be able to compensate for any struggles offensively they may have.

The Dolphins check every box I'm looking for in a tournament game. They rebound better, protect the ball better, get to the charity stripe better and play much, much better defense.

I'm sprinting to WynnBET to get this bet placed and I suggest you do the same. Jacksonville has covered in three of their last four as an underdog and there's just too many things that have to go right for Bellarmine to win this one. The Dolphins will secure an NCAA Tournament birth today.

Pick: Jacksonville +125

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.