Jaguars vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Jacksonville a Live Dog in D.C.)

Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence. / Corey Perrine / USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s a new era in Jacksonville, as Doug Pederson is in his first season as the team's head coach after the Urban Meyer debacle that was the 2021 season. 

Former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are on the road in Week 1 against the new-look Washington Commanders, who have Carson Wentz at quarterback this season. 

Washington is down star pass rusher Chase Young as he recovers from the torn ACL he suffered in the 2021 season, and that could be a bad sign for a defense that was one of the worst units in the NFL in 2021. 

The Jags spent a ton of money in the offseason to upgrade the roster, but it all comes down to whether or not Pederson can get the best out of Lawrence after he had a rough rookie season. 

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook for Week 1: 

Jaguars vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total


  • Jaguars +3.5 (-120)
  • Commanders -3.5 (-102)


  • Jaguars: +138
  • Commanders: -164


  • 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Commanders vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

  • The UNDER was 12-5 in the Jaguars’ 17 games last season. 
  • The UNDER was 10-7 in the Commanders’ 17 games last season. 
  • Washington is 17-16-1 ATS under Ron Rivera. 
  • Washington is just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite under Rivera. 
  • The Jaguars were 0-8 straight up on the road in 2021. 

Jaguars vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick

I don’t believe in the Commanders entering the 2022 season, as Wentz has shown his flaws as a quarterback and Washington’s defense took a massive step back in 2021. 

If Rivera’s squad can turn back into a top-10 defensive unit in 2022, then it may be enough to make up for Wentz’s deficiencies, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Also, the loss of rookie running back Brian Robinson, who was shot (and luckily OK) last week, will hurt the Commanders’ overall offense around Wentz. 

As for the Jaguars, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about them as well, but it literally can’t get worse than having Meyer as the team’s head coach. 

I think Pederson brings in a much better offense for Lawrence and company, and the Jags get running back James Robinson back for Week 1 even though he tore his Achilles last season. 

With this number through three, I think the Jags are worth a bet and are live dogs in Week 1. 

LEAN: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.