James Harden Won't Score Big in Return From Injury UPDATE: Harden under hits

UPDATE: James Harden played 26 minutes off the bench in his return to the lineup and was efficient from the field going 6-for-8 and scoring 18 points. Harden still went under his projected point total of 20.5 points. What follows is the original report from pregame.

Brooklyn Nets superstar James Harden is expected to return on Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs after missing over a month with a hamstring injury.

Nets star James Harden plans to play tonight vs. Spurs, assuming pregame warmups go smoothly, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Harden is on the cusp of his return after missing over one month with a hamstring strain.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 12, 2021

Harden averages 25.2 points per game this season, but WynnBET has his player prop projection set for just 20.5 points in his return. The over (-112) is the very slight favorite to the under (-110), but Harden’s points will really depend on just how much the Nets are willing to let him play tonight.

Brooklyn shouldn’t have much trouble against the Spurs with Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving all in the lineup, so it is likely Harden doesn’t get close to the 37.3 minutes per game he was averaging with the Nets before getting hurt.

In fact, Steve Nash has already discussed the team wants to make sure it eases Harden in and see how he responds to more taxing workloads over time.

Steve Nash said that James Harden responded well to his hard scrimmage workout yesterday. This is a positive sign: how Harden feels and responds the day after a more taxing workload has been one key factor the Nets are evaluating before clearing him to return.
— Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) May 11, 2021

I’d be shocked if the Nets gave Harden much more than 25 minutes in his return to action, which puts the under on his projected point total (20.5) in a much better spot. Granted, Harden is one of the best scorers of his generation and could easily light it up in fewer minutes, but it’s hard to imagine the Nets leaving him out there for extended stretches of time.

Harden has played under 30 minutes in just two games since joining the Nets, scoring 26 points in a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on April 6 and dropping 17 points in a win over the Houston Rockets on March 31. That’s an extremely small sample size to go off of, but there is another factor that could lead to a lower scoring output from Harden.

The Nets will have Harden, Durant and Irving on the floor together for just the eighth time this season on Wednesday. They’re all going to get their shots, but I would expect Harden, in less minutes and coming off injury, to be the guy who takes a step back tonight.

He very well could score in the high teens, but I just can’t see the Nets running Harden out there long enough where he breaks the 20.5-point projection. Brooklyn has bigger things on its mind than winning this game, and if all Harden needs is a tune up, then the team would be wise to make sure he doesn’t overdo it with the playoffs just 10 days away.