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Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Semifinal Preview, Odds, Prediction

The world No. 2 and No. 3 will clash on Friday in a star-studded men's French Open semifinal on the clay courts in Paris.

By Benjamin Upson

Jun 4, 2024; Paris, France; Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece on day 10 of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 4, 2024; Paris, France; Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece on day 10 of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
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There are times in the sport of tennis where we are blessed with some incredible matchups in the late rounds of grand slams. For the third time since 2022 and first this year, world No. 2 Jannik Sinner and No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz face off in a matchup that is becoming a generational duel between two superstars.

At the ages of 21 and 22 respectively, the shades of Federer-Nadal comparisons are already beginning and for good reason. Both players have already established themselves as Alcaraz has two slam titles, and Sinner picked up his first at the Australian Open in January. Ironically, both picked up their 50th grand slam wins on Tuesday ahead of this juggernaut matchup.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Alcaraz: -2.5 (-122)
  • Sinner: +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Alcaraz: -170
  • Sinner: +140

Total: 38.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Betting Trends

  • Jannik Sinner is 4-4 all-time versus Carlos Alcaraz
  • Carlos Alcaraz has made at least the semifinals in 4 of last 5 Grand Slams
  • Jannik Sinner is 33-2 this season across all tournaments played
  • Carlos Alcaraz is 16-3 in his career at the French Open

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz: How To Watch

  • Date: Friday, June 7th
  • Match Time: 8:30 AM
  • Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros, Paris, France
  • How To Watch (TV, Streaming): Tennis Channel, TC Plus, (Join in progress at 11:00AM on NBC, Peacock)
  • Jannik Sinner Grand Slam Record (2024): 12-0
  • Carlos Alcaraz Grand Slam Record (2024): 9-1

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and Pick

I’ve been hyping up this rivalry ever since their meeting in the 2022 US Open quarterfinals, but Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are quickly ushering in the next era of generational talent in professional tennis. They are both quick, versatile and knowledgeable on the court. They will feed off each other and push themselves to their limits in this match.

This will be the second meeting between Alcaraz and Sinner on clay. The remaining 7 meetings have been across hard courts (6) and a grass surface match at Wimbledon.

These two are 4-4 head-to-head and their rankings back that notion up. This is their first grand slam meeting against each other where both players now have a grand slam title under their belt. The experience and prowess of these players will certainly make a difference and be noticed in this match. The one match between these two in 2024 came at Indian Wells in the semifinals this spring, which was one where Carlos dominated late, winning in three sets, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Looking at the young Italian in Sinner, it’s been a memorable season to this point. A perfect 12-0 in the grand slams, his first title in January at the Australian Open and his revamped game which continues to improve each time he steps on the court. He’s 33-2 on the year and has been exceptional on this run to the French Open semifinals. This is his biggest opponent so far in his young career and it makes sense why based on their techniques and physical endurance.

Sinner will have a wonderful chance in this match due to the pacing of his serve and ability to create and force long rallies, which he is capable of winning more often than not. His ground strokes are impressive and he must be able to work Carlos to the max to wear him down.

The Spanish phenom, Alcaraz, is back for revenge at this tournament after an unfortunate series of cramps robbed him of a potential spot in the 2023 French Open final. He played one of the most incredible first sets of tennis against Novak Djokovic in that semifinal last year and tightened up, which completely took his game away from him. His signature drop shot is what elevates his game, along with spectacular cross court coverage much to the likes of Djokovic.

His intelligence level is incredible as he makes opponents stumble over themselves on court. He is somewhat of a human backboard and is well-conditioned for an intense, powerful match. When he pulls out that drop shot with his opponents left at the baseline, good luck.

I am going to look at the total games for a meeting of these two high caliber players. In the two times that Alcaraz and Sinner have played at the grand slam level, their matches have gone 4 and 5 sets respectively. Each of those meetings the total went over the listed number of 38.5 for Friday’s matchup. 

The talent margin is so thin between these two that if someone wins in straight sets, it would be completely astonishing. You could ask 100 people to predict this match and I guarantee 99 would say this is easily going beyond straight sets.

This match could very well go deep into the Paris afternoon so I believe the game total has no chance of coming into play with the under. I am not going to officially predict a winner for this match, but I will lean towards Sinner based on form in this tournament despite Alcaraz being the more advantageous player on the clay surface. Sinner has found a rhythm on the clay courts and will be on the attack from the moment this match gets rolling. What I do feel confident in is this is a 4-5 set match for their third slam meeting, carrying us to the over on match games. 

Pick: Total Match Games OVER 38.5

Note: Odds are subject to change.

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