Jazz vs. Mavericks Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 2 (Mavs' Advantage on Glass a Key Factor)

The Utah Jazz are the surprise of the young NBA season, jumping out to a 6-2 record behind stellar play from Lauri Markkanen. Coming off two straight wins over the Grizzlies, they hope to shock another Western Conference contender in the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Behind Luka Doncic's 36.7 points per game, the Mavericks have the NBA's best offensive rating (119.0) but are just 3-3 after a couple late-game collapses. Luka is on an otherwordly stretch, nearly averaging a triple-double, so Utah will have its hands full defensively.

With the NBA's eighth-best defensive rating (108.2) though, the well-coached Jazz look up to the task.

Here are the updated odds for a surprisingly stellar matchup early in the season:

Jazz vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Jazz vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

I love the way this Jazz team is playing, but they're overmatched here. They've failed to cover the spread in each of their last two road games, getting blown out by the Nuggets and dropping a close game to the Rockets. Their home advantage seems significant, but I see Dallas pulling out a home victory here.

That guy is a big reason why. Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson are both having great seasons, but Utah lacks a player that can go toe-to-toe with the world's best offensive player. Luka is dominating opponents, with Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie playing great ball as well.

As it stands, the Mavericks have the fourth-best net rating (8.2) while the Jazz are seventh (4.5), but the biggest advantage Dallas has in this matchup lies on the glass.

The Mavericks have the NBA's 12th-best rebounding percentage (50.4) compared to Utah's 25th ranking (48.6%). That advantage is even larger when preventing second-chance points. Utah is a putrid 29th in defensive rebounding percentage (64.7%) while Dallas is seventh (73.6%).

If you give an elite offense like the Mavericks' that many extra chances, Luka and Co. will make you pay. Back the Mavericks to improve to 3-1 at home as Utah runs out of gas due to a commanding rebounding advantage for Dallas.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.