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Jets vs. Browns Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 2 (Big Betting Trend Backs New York)

By Ben Heisler

New York Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson led New York with 13 yards per catch in their Week 1 24-9 loss at home to the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson led New York with 13 yards per catch in their Week 1 24-9 loss at home to the Baltimore Ravens. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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The Cleveland Browns spoiled the revenge game for former quarterback Baker Mayfield on the road in Carolina in Week 1 thanks to the golden leg of rookie kicker Cade York.

Following their 26-24 road upset over the Panthers, they open up their season in Cleveland against the New York Jets, who dropped their home opener to the Baltimore Ravens 24-9. Backup quarterback Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards in the loss, but attempted 59 passes in the process.

The Jets only one a single game on the road last year, but could they follow Week 1's stunning upsets and pull one off of their own?

Here's how Vegas sees this Week 2 matchup:

Jets vs. Browns Odds, Spread and Total

Jets vs. Browns Betting Trends

Jets:

  • New York 2-5 last year as an away underdog in Robert Saleh's first year
  • New York 6-2 ATS in last 8 games vs. Cleveland
  • UNDER is 5-0 in New York's last five games in September

Browns:

  • Kevin Stefanski only 5-10 ATS as a home favorite
  • UNDER is 6-0 in Browns last six games vs. teams with losing records
  • Favorites have gone 10-1 ATS in last 11 meetings

Jets vs. Browns Prediction and Pick

While there's several noteworthy trends above, there's one I've saved for last; partially because it put me over the edge to take the Jets at just under seven.

Avery Yang and Evan Abrams pointed out a remarkable note going back to 2018. In games with a total of 42 points or less in the first eight weeks of the NFL season, underdogs have gone 40-17 against the spread (ATS).

Only two games this week have teams that match those categories: the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) | 40.5, and the New York Jets (+6.5).

I get that the Jets got spanked by the Ravens, but that's the consensus division favorite in the AFC North! Meanwhile, the Browns barely hung around with a Carolina Panthers team projected for 6.5-7 wins, and had all sorts of reasons to be fired up in a matchup vs. their former quarterback.

The total for the Jets and Browns opened at 42, and has since been bet down to 40.5 at consensus books. As totals go down, underdog opportunities tend to go up, with less points projected on the board. I see this as a potential letdown spot for Cleveland, even in its home opener and with its backup quarterback under center. 6.5 is simply too much here.

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