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J.J McCarthy Heavily Favored To Be Top 5 Pick in 2024 NFL Draft

Pundits have speculated for months where the national champion signal-caller will get drafted. Here’s what Las Vegas thinks. 

By Shelby Dermer

December 31, 2022; Glendale, Ariz; USA; Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy (9) throws a pass during the national championship game.
December 31, 2022; Glendale, Ariz; USA; Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy (9) throws a pass during the national championship game. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY
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The NFL draft has grown to a can’t-miss event and this season’s quarterback-heavy field brings the excitement to a new level. 

There’s a chance that a half-dozen collegiate signal-callers will go in the opening round of the draft later this month in Detroit. It’s open season for mock drafts, reports, smoke screens and speculation. No potential first-round quarterback has been debated more than Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. 

McCarthy led the Wolverines to a national title last season, though many are wondering if his attributes blend with his championship DNA. McCarthy threw for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns against four interceptions last season in Michigan’s run-first offense. Will an NFL team take him early on in the draft?

According to oddsmakers, there’s a great chance McCarthy hears his name early April 25. 

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McCarthy Favored To Go Top-5 

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, McCarthy has jumped to -270 ($100 bet wins $37.04) to go in the top-5 of the NFL Draft, which is an implied probability of 72.97%.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams seems like a lock to go No. 1 to the Chicago Bears (-8000 on FanDuel). Outside of Williams, though, McCarthy is one of four players favored to go top-5 along with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (-1500), North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye (-1350) and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (-750). 

It’s interesting that the trio of Daniels, Maye and Harrison Jr. are such heavy favorites to go top-5. Outside of McCarthy, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers is the closest underdog (+175) to crack the top-5. 

McCarthy is +240 to go No. 4 and +430 to go No. 5.

Could A Trade Send McCarthy To Top-5? 

The first three picks in the draft seem set, though the order is up for debate. Outside of Williams going to Chicago, Maye and Daniels are essentially coin flips to either go No. 2 to Washington or No. 3 to New England. 

That’s where it gets interesting when it comes to McCarthy, who is +450 to go No. 2 and +360 to go No. 3. The final two teams picking in the top-5 are seemingly not in the market for a rookie quarterback. The Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 pick) set the record straight in February that they are committed to Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. The Los Angeles Chargers (No. 5 pick) inked Justin Herbert to a five-year extension last summer. 

It would likely take a trade for McCarthy’s -270 number to come through in the top-5. The most likely candidate? Well, it has to be the team favored to draft the Michigan product. 

Per FanDuel, the Vikings are the odds-on favorite to select McCarthy at +105 as the replacement of Kirk Cousins, who signed with Atlanta. Minnesota currently holds the No. 11 spot in the draft after flirting with a playoff spot in the NFC last season. 

The Patriots and Commanders round out the top-3 in the McCarthy Sweepstakes, though the odds say they’ll split the pair of Daniels and Maye. The New York Giants are fourth to land McCarthy at +450, but hold the No. 6 slot. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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