John Deere Classic Course Preview & Best Bets

What a great weekend it was at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Despite the boring course and weak field, we were tied atop the leaderboard until the 71st hole and had four golfers finish within one shot of the lead. Cam Davis ultimately came out on top and won the Rocket Mortgage Championship for the second time in his career, but now the tour takes a short six-hour ride west to Illinois for the John Deere Classic.

The John Deere Classic traditionally draws weak fields due to the upcoming travel, but weak fields are the most fun to bet. Four of the last five winners have won at 50/1 odds or longer, so it's an excellent week to take some long shots. Let’s talk about the course and event before I give out my best bets for the weekend. 

John Deere Classic Tournament Information

The John Deere Classic is held annually at TPC Deere Run. It is another 72-hole stroke-play event, with a cut after the second round where the top 65 players (and ties) make it into the weekend. This event traditionally has a weaker field as most players who have qualified for the British Open are starting to travel there for a prep week at the Scottish Open before the major championship in two weeks. But for those who have yet to qualify, the John Deere Classic is one of the last chances to qualify for the oldest tournament in golf. 

Course Information

TPC Deere Run is a par 71 track that plays about 7,289 yards. Length is always helpful off of the tee, but this course is about driving accuracy. The landing areas are littered with fairway bunkers and well-placed trees that will block out certain parts of the fairway. 

Once players set themselves up off the tee, the course is easy. Only three par 4’s are playing over 460 yards, one par three over 220 yards, and all three par 5’s are under 600 yards on the card. 

Plenty of doglegs are on the course, emphasizing the need to set yourself off the tee, but TPC Deere Run has relatively wide fairways, so this event usually turns into a pitch and putt.

This weekend, 44 percent of approaches will be hit from inside 150 yards and 74 percent from inside 200 yards. This course doesn’t demand much; ball striking and distance control will be key this weekend.

We will see smaller green complexes again, similar to the ones we saw last weekend at Detroit Golf Club, and a similar bentgrass seed. The greens played on tour have been bentgrass for four straight weeks, but in the two prior weeks, it has been mixed with a poa seed, so minor adjustments will need to be made here. 

This event ended with a winning score of -27in 2018. But in the four years since then, it has been won at an average of -20.5. Birdies are going to be the name of the game here. It is going to be another very low-scoring week.

Jon Deere Classic Key Stats

Look, there isn’t much to this course in the way of defence, which creates multiple ways to win, but the two necessary qualities to win at this course are ball striking and a hot putter. 

SG: Ball Striking

Three of the past four winners at TPC Deere Run have finished inside the top five in strokes gained ball striking, the outlier there being Dylan Frittelli, who finished 21st in that category the year he won the event. These guys have had a great week off the tee, consistently hitting fairways and on approach hitting greens and making putts. This course hasn’t had a winning score of -15 or higher since 1997—every year since has been lower, with the winner often needing to shoot -20 or lower. To stay in the mix here, players must consistently give themselves quality birdie looks. 

• Distance From The Edge of The Fairway
• Driving Accuracy%
• Good Drive %
• SG: Approach
• Greens in Regulation %

SG: Putting

Three of the last five winners at this venue have finished inside the top five in the field in strokes gained putting, the outliers being J.T Poston and Lucas Glover, who both finished fifth in SG: Ball Striking while still having an above-average week with the putter. On-pitch and putt courses like TPC Deere Run, half of the battle is giving yourself birdie looks, and the other half involves making those birdie putts. These greens at TPC Deere Run are usually very receptive and have little to them regarding slope and undulation. Great putters are going to thrive this weekend. 

• SG: Putting (Bentgrass) 
• SG: Putting 5-15 feet
• Birdie or better %

2024 John Deere Classic Best Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Outrights

This is a collection of the most consistent ball strikers in this field.

Outside of Hubbard I am fairly confident that the other three will be giving themselves the most consistent birdie looks all weekend, For Straka, Rai and Glover it will all be about if they can get their putter to heat up. Hubbard may lack a little ball striking next to the other three in this group, but he is definitely the best putter of this group. I love his success in weak fields and at this event enough to throw a dart. 

• Sepp Straka (+1800) DraftKings
• Aaron Rai (+2200) Fanduel
• Lucas Glover (+6000) Fanduel
• Mark Hubbard (+7000) Fanduel

Placements

• Sepp Straka Top 20 Finish (-105)

Straka has been playing well recently. Over the last six months, he ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained on approach and fifth in driving accuracy, two massive keys to success at TPC Deere Run. Looking even more recently, Straka ranks first in the field in strokes gained on approach and second in strokes gained ball striking over the last three months. 

Over these three months, Straka has finished inside the top 20 in six of his last nine starts on tour. In addition to his recent form, Straka is the defending champion at the John Deere Classic. 

• Mark Hubbard Top 40 Finish (+100)

Hubbard is a guy I would love to be back in these weak field events; this is where he thrives. Over the last year, Hubbard ranks 10th in the field in total strokes gained in weak fields and 10th in total strokes gained at TPC Deere Run in the previous five years. 

In 2022, Hubbard finished T13 at this event, and in 2023, he came back to finish sixth. Although he has not had the best finishes recently, he does have six top-40 finishes in his last 11 starts on tour. Recently, there have been a ton of tougher, longer courses played, and Hubbard’s game doesn’t fit those courses well. But I like his chances on a short course with a weak field. 

• Patton Kizzire Top 40 Finish (+170) 

Kizzire is flying somewhat under the radar. He has finished in the top 40 in five of his last six events, with all five of those finishes in the top 30. In addition to that, Kizzire also has three top-40 finishes in his last four trips to the John Deere Classic. Kizzire keeps the ball in the fairway and has been exceptional on approach recently, ranking first in the field in greens in regulation percentage over the last three months. This play will be about if he can sink enough birdie putts to get himself in the mix on the weekend. 

• Ben Kohles Top 40 Finish (+230)

Kohles is an interesting player. He is exceptionally accurate off the tee, an above-average approach player in this field and struggles around the greens. He is a lights-out putter on bentgrass.

In this event, Kohles ranks 2nd in the field in strokes gained by putting on bentgrass over the last 12 months. He also ranks 11th in driving accuracy and 34th in strokes gained ball striking over the previous three months. Kohles finally seems to be finding some consistency on tour, having made six of his last seven cuts and finishing in the top 40 in four events. I like his chances of doing it again in another weak field coming off of a T20 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.