Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes: Who is the Best Bet for NFL MVP?
By Josh Yourish
Usually by Week 8 of the NFL season, we can nominate clear-cut MVP, at least for the first half.
This season, there hasn’t been one player who has truly dominated the first seven games of the season more than the rest. Josh Allen remains the betting favorite to win the award, Patrick Mahomes is right there in the mix, and Jalen Hurts has steadily climbed into the conversation for the first time.
Entering the near midway point of the regular season, who is the best bet to take home the award by the time Week 18 is complete?
NFL MVP Best Bets
- Josh Allen +125
- Patrick Mahomes +450
- Jalen Hurts +500
Josh Allen +125
Allen is the sensible favorite at this point of the season. He led the Bills to a win over the Chiefs and has been fantastic passing and running the ball. Unfortunately, there just isn’t a lot of value for a preseason favorite that still hasn’t done enough to truly stand out from the rest.
Granted, Allen is on pace to break the single season passing yards record with 1,980 yards through six games. He also has 257 yards rushing and two touchdowns on the ground. It’s almost as if this is what voters expected from Allen and might be a bizarre case where there is voter fatigue for a quarterback that's never even won the award
Patrick Mahomes +450
Mahomes had his two most impressive performances in games with big spotlight matchups on the road; dominating vs. Tampa Bay, and again last week in San Francisco.
He leads the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. However, he doesn’t have the rushing element that Allen has and the only reason he leads Allen in passing yards is due to having an extra game on his schedule without a bye to this point.
Mahomes can certainly have a few more incredible performances and maybe the voters remain impressed that he continues to put up monster numbers without Tyreek Hill on the roster.
Jalen Hurts +500
Jalen Hurts is not in the same stratosphere as the two guys ahead of him. In fact, the Eagles being undefeated is primarily the reason Hurts is in this conversation.
With their updated win total currently projected at 13.5 games, even if they exceed it, I don’t see a world where winning 14 games in a down year for the NFC gets him the award with less impressive numbers than Allen and Mahomes.
Best NFL MVP Darkhorse Pick
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow didn’t have his breakout until the second half of the season last year. This year, that breakout has already begun and won’t be slowing down anytime soon.
Burrow is currently +1600, incredible value for a young quarterback that got his team to the Super Bowl a year ago.
Despite a disastrous Week 1 in his return from an appendectomy, he’s already second in passing yards and third in touchdown passes. Last week against the Falcons, Burrow threw for 481 yards while completing 80% of his passes with three touchdowns. Burrow’s average depth of target is a full yard lower than it was a year ago, but that will continue to climb throughout the year as he hits more deep shots to Ja’Marr Chase.
In Week 17, the Bengals have a showdown with Buffalo that will likely be in primetime, and with nine more weeks to go, I wouldn’t be surprised if the winner of that game takes home the award.
The NFL MVP race may be a projected three-man race, but I’ll take the dark horse behind the pack in Burrow because it’s just too much value to pass up.
PICK: Joe Burrow MVP +1600
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Game/futures odds refresh periodically and are subject to change