Josiah Gray Should Soar Past His Strikeout Prop vs. Braves

The Washington Nationals may be sizable underdogs on getaway day versus the Atlanta Braves this afternoon, but Nats starting pitcher Josiah Gray is a big favorite in one notable prop betting option.

Over at WynnBET Sportsbook, Gray is projected at 4.5 strikeouts on the afternoon, with the over juiced up to -130 odds, compared to the under at -110.

The 24-year old right-hander only went four innings back on Opening Day against the Mets, but still struck out five batters in the process. He also only had one ball barreled up all day, despite giving up some hard contact and eight hits overall.

So why is today an ideal spot for the young right-hander to pass his prop total?

Each day, MLB Statcast data evaluates each starting pitcher based on their current stats from the season, and projects their expected numbers into that day's matchup based on their opponents' collected Statcast information.

Gray, who is opposed by talented left-hander Max Fried of the Braves, has a superior strikeout percentage (41.4% to 22.7%), while being projected for one less strikeout on the afternoon (4.5 to 5.5). Gray also has forced weaker contact off the bat at an average exit velocity of 79.7 mph, and projects for an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of 0.207. League average, for what it's worth, sits around 0.320.

Nobody else on the board today has a higher strikeout percentage than Gray, and his number only sits at 4.5.

I'll be going over the projected total as the Nationals, and Gray, look to bounce back in his second start of the year.

PICK: OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

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