Julio Jones Signing Does Nothing For Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Super Bowl Odds

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Julio Jones (2) exits the field after their loss to the Cincinnati
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Julio Jones (2) exits the field after their loss to the Cincinnati / Andrew Nelles / Tennessean.com / USA

Once again, Tom Brady found a way to break the hearts of Falcons fans everywhere yesterday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Julio Jones to a 1-year deal. This move gives Brady another veteran receiver who, when healthy, is still one of the tougher covers in the league. 

However, the key phrase in that sentence is “when healthy.” Jones has missed 14 games in the last two seasons and has been declining in receiving yards since 2019. With availability concerns and the natural drop off that comes with age, Jones’ signing isn’t moving the needle for the Bucs. 

Tampa Bay was +600 to win the Super Bowl prior to signing Julio Jones and is still +600 after the signing. His signing didn’t show the oddsmakers anything new, and I think that’s the right call. 

Jones is coming off easily the worst season of his career. He had career lows across the board, only averaging 43.4 yards and 3.1 receptions per game. Unless Jones finds a fountain of youth, I don’t see him getting back to the All-Pro level he was at two seasons ago. 

Aside from the odds, I don’t think Jones’ presence drastically changes how I view the Bucs’ chances to win it all this year. This is a team that is going to look different on the offensive line, lost Rob Gronkowski and still has holes on defense. 

Tom Brady is good enough to mask a lot of mistakes but offensive line struggles and poor defense is too much to overcome in the playoffs. Julio Jones would have to be the best wide receiver in the league to raise the offense to a level where it can hide the defense. And that’s not happening. 

So even with the gravity of the name, Julio Jones doesn’t make the Buccaneers any more of a contender than they already are. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.