Julio Urias vs. Logan Webb - Who Will Have More Strikeouts in Dodgers-Giants Game 5?

UPDATE: Corey Knebel, not Julio Urias, will start Game 5 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's possible that Urias will be on the mound at some point in the game, but he will not start as previously expected.

What follows is the initial player prop story when Urias was expected to start.

Both the Giants and Dodgers are one more win away from punching their ticket to the NLCS. The teams finishing with the two best records in baseball will settle who's best this Thursday night at Oracle Park in San Francisco. 

Starting for the Dodgers will be Julio Urias (1-0,1.80) while the Giants will turn to Logan Webb (1-0, 0.00) to try and punch their ticket to the championship series. Let's focus on these two players and make a pick on who ends up with more punchouts in Game 5. 

Why Urias can total more strikeouts

It’s hard to believe that at 25-years old, Urias already has five seasons with the Dodgers under his belt. What isn’t hard to believe is that a kid who started MLB games when he was just a teenager has grown into a true ace. 

Urias had an amazing season for the Dodgers and is a big reason why they are in this game at all. The southpaw phenom won 20 games for the first time in his career and did so with a 2.96 in ERA to boot. His WHIP of 1.02 is also incredible, especially when you consider he struck out 195 hitters in 185.2 innings pitches: a rate of more than 1 an inning. 

If that wasn’t impressive enough, his numbers against the Giants will have Dodger fans salivating over his potential to send their team to the NLCS. In five games against the Giants in 2021, Urias struck out the Giants 33 times. That is more than any other team in the league with the Diamondbacks second at 23 punchouts. Now, Urias did play the Giants once more than the D-Backs but 10 extra strikeouts is a lot for a single start. 

Urias has already pitched in this series and led the Dodgers to a 9-2 win in game 2. Urias fanned five in five innings so his 1 K per inning season average holds up here. 

So, with a total likely set at WynnBET for 5.5 strikeouts, what are his chances to outshine Webb and cash some tickets for us? 

Well, the name of the game here is pitch count. Urias is wildly talented but he’s also not the most efficient pitcher. The team usually likes to limit him to around 80 or 90 pitches and that usually limits Urias to just 5 or 6 innings. He hasn’t gone seven since Sept. 10 vs the Padres. So a bet on Urias to go over is really a bet on whether he will pitch more than 5 or 6 innings tonight. 

Why Webb can total more strikeouts

For the Giants, Logan Webb will toe the rubber for this important game 5 against the Dodgers. The 24-year-old righty had an 11-3 record on the year and totaled 158 strikeouts in 148.8 innings pitched. Not quite the same level as Urias but damn close to a strikeout per inning. 

His last outing was against the Dodgers and he led his team to a 4-0 shutout of the reigning MLB champions. Webb went 7 ⅔ innings, giving up just five hits and fanning 10 Dodger batters. Webb has his strikeout total projected for 4.5 in this game. Just like Urias, this is a reasonable number to settle on. However, I think they are both beatable numbers for two players that need to see their teams win tonight. 

Based on the matchup, season stats, and my gut, I will predict that Urias has more strikeouts in this game than Webb does. I do worry but about his getting pulled early for any number of reasons in order to protect him for the next series or even the next season. If that doesn’t happen, I think Urias can see his strikeout total flirt with double digits. 

While I do think that Urias fans more batters than Webb does in this game, both are good bets to go over the betting total in game 5. 

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