Justin Fields has averaged an amazingly low 105.3 passing yards per game. In his first six career appearances, he has a high of 209 passing yards against the Detroit Lions in Week 4.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is allowing 292.7 passing yards per game, 26th in the NFL, and will be playing Week 7 without cornerbacks Cartlon Davis and Richard Sherman.
If there was ever a time to take Justin Fields to hit the over on his passing yards prop, it’s now.
Although, I do understand why most will fade this prop bet.
The Buccaneers allowed a season low 115 passing yards to Jalen Hurts last week. That was an extreme outlier considering that in the other five games Tampa Bay has played, they allowed a low of 275 passing yards to Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett in Weeks 4 and 5.
Fields has to put on a big passing performance at some point this season and this should be the week to do it. It’s just difficult to know what to expect from this quagmire that is a Matt Nagy offense.
Averaging just 6.3 yards per pass attempt has hampered Fields' yards totals a bit, but he should be gaining confidence in throwing the deep ball as he becomes more confident playing at the NFL level.
Fields should be throwing often if Chicago is playing from behind for the majority of this game. With the injuries in the Bucs’ defensive secondary, Fields should find some open space downfield for wide receivers Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet.