Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Olivera UFC 274 Prediction and Odds (Oliveira Favored to Retain Lightweight Title)

Charles Oliveira celebrates his victory.
Charles Oliveira celebrates his victory. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Lightweight championship challenger Justin Gaethje will be fighting in front of his local Arizona crowd at UFC 274, but can he win the title?

We will find out on Saturday, May 7 when Gaethje matches up against champion Charles Oliveira, who is on a 10 fight winning streak dating back to 2018. Oliveira won the Lightweight title belt in the summer of 2021 and retained it against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269. Will he hold off Gaethje, who is off of a win against Michael Chandler?

Here are the odds for the UFC 274 main event from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira UFC 274 Odds


  • Justin Gaethje: +150
  • Charles Oliveira: -180

Total: 1.5 (Over -185/Under +155)

Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira UFC 274 Prediction and Pick

This is going to be an entertaining battle that I expect to be short lived. Oliveira is constantly in firefights, both of his title bouts have not completed the third round, finishing both Chandler R2 and Poirier in the early third. I don't see much different in this one as Oliveira can challenge Gaethje on the ground, but also in the stand up.

Oliveira is constantly coming forward and is more than comparable of letting his hands fly and connecting, but that is Gaethje's preferred method of madness. While he has been finished by KO, Gaethje's win equity is built into an early finish. Given the fact that Chandler nearly knocked out 'do Bronx' in R1 of their title bout, I believe there's reason for optimism that the Arizona native can find a finish there.

However, I believe that Oliveira can remain standing and outlast the early Gaethje finish. I believe this fight will play out similarly to the Poirier victory. Oliveira was knocked down early, and the two had a close strike output (73 vs. 58 in favor of Oliveira), but rallied to finish the fight by submission. As the two exchange and tire out, there will be more openings for the champ, who will finish this fight. I'll wait to see a full betting market, but I lean towards Oliveira by submission.


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!