Kansas City Chiefs 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

2020 was supposed to be the “run it back” year for the Kansas City Chiefs, and they nearly pulled it off.

The Chiefs finished with the best record in the league at 14-2, notched the top spot in the AFC Playoffs, rolled their way to a third straight AFC Championship game, and walked into their second consecutive Super Bowl with plenty of swagger abound.

And then, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers flat-out steamrolled them.

Patrick Mahomes was running for his life all game long as the Bucs went on to trounce the Chiefs 31-9. Kansas City had no ability whatsoever to stop any Tampa pressure. The Super Bowl defeat became the entire onus for the team’s offseason, adding in four new starters on the offensive line with a single goal in mind: protect the franchise quarterback.

Heading into 2021, the Chiefs are once again the favorites to not only return to the Super Bowl, but win it. Their division has improved, as have several other teams in the AFC, but anything other than a second Super Bowl title in three years will be viewed as a disappointment in KC.

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Team Outlook

Patrick Mahomes continues his trajectory towards one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the sport. Through just three full seasons, Mahomes is 38-8-0 as a starter, with 114 touchdowns, 24 interceptions and over 14,000 passing yards. 

Mahomes always seems to find a new opportunity to prove people wrong. One year, it was the number of picks he was taken after the first quarterback of the 2018 draft, another time it was him not being named the number one player in the NFL Top 100. With a new chip on his shoulder after a stinging Super Bowl defeat, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Mahomes look even more dangerous.

His new offensive line will help a great deal, as the rebuilt line enters 2021 No. 7 on Pro Football Focus’ list. The key name is not Joe Thuney, their prized free agent signing at left guard, it’s Orlando Brown Jr, who the Baltimore Ravens gave up for a first round pick. Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Lucas Niang are the expected starters from center through right tackle.

In the run game, the Chiefs would have liked to have seen more from their first round selection in 2020. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was brilliant in their season opener vs the Texans, but only rushed for 803 yards through 13 games. If healthy, Edwards-Helaire should inch closer to that 1,000 rushing mark, and potentially catch 50+ passes in the backfield. Veteran back Jerick McKinnon may also get an opportunity to play the “Damien Williams” role in the pass game.

Mahomes would be the first to credit much of his success to having the top wide receiver and tight end combination in the league in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce; with the latter setting the all-time record for most receiving yards in a season by a tight end in NFL history. Kelce and Hill combined for just under 2,700 yards receiving last year with 26 touchdowns. With Sammy Watkins now in Baltimore, this is the year Mecole Hardman needs to take his next step forward in this offense.

On defense, Steve Spagnolo enters his third year as defensive coordinator for a Chiefs team that finished 10th in points allowed a season ago. They played well overall as a unit, but there’s many areas in need of improvement, particularly when it comes to creating and generating pressure.

Chris Jones and Frank Clark need to return to what helped them land major contracts with healthy seasons and at least one of them getting to double-digit sacks. Jones led the team with 7.5 a season ago, with Clark coming in second with just six. The addition of Jarran Reed from Seattle should help alleviate some of the double teams.

At linebacker, Ben Niemann and Anthony Hitchens should pair up nicely, but don’t be surprised to see plenty of second round rookie Nick Bolton getting plenty of opportunities as well.

At corner, the Chiefs will start Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed on the outside, with Daniel Sorensen and Tyrann Mathieu at safety. Mathieu may be out for the season opener vs. Cleveland after landing on the COVID-19 list.

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 NFL Draft

Kansas City traded away their first round pick to acquire Orlando Brown from the Ravens, but in the second round they picked up the aforementioned Nick Bolton out of the University of Missouri. Bolton projects more as a future middle linebacker, but he may play some snaps on the outside early on.

A few picks later in the second, the Chiefs picked up their new center in Creed Humphrey from Oklahoma, who is already set to start with Patrick Mahomes behind him. No pressure, kid.

The Chiefs rounded out their picks with Florida State defensive end Joshua Kaindow out of Florida State in Round 4, Duke tight end Noah Gray in the fifth as well as Clemson wideout Cornell Powell, and wrapped up their picks with Tennessee guard Trey Smith in Round 6.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Odds: Division (-310), Conference (+240), Super Bowl (+475)

To nobody’s surprise, the Chiefs are massive favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook to win the AFC West division at -310 odds (bet $310 to win $100). Kansas City is looking to win their sixth consecutive division under Andy Reid.

The Chiefs are also the undisputed favorites to both win the AFC (+240 odds at WynnBET), as well as return for another Super Bowl championship; coming in at +475 odds for 2021-2022. 

Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Win Total: 12.0 WINS | OVER (-150), UNDER (+130)

Ben Heisler: 

I’ve lived in the Kansas City area for more than seven and a half years now, and it’s absolutely remarkable to see how expectations change the moment someone as good as Patrick Mahomes comes to town.

For three straight years, this team has gone to the AFC Championship game and won it twice! They would have thrown a parade here just a few years back!

While Mahomes can do now wrong in this town, what’s been even more remarkable is how focused and determined the entire franchise has become with regards to understanding the position they’re in. There was never any animosity amongst the players, coaches, and front office. The highest performing players on the team have been compensated accordingly, and they’re all in it to take advantage of a championship window with their quarterback just scratching the surface of his prime.

Mahomes has a far superior offensive line than the year before, the run game has improved, and it’s hard to find many flaws with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the lineup catching passes. Defensively, if Chris Jones and Frank Clark are healthy, they should be a top 10 defense once again. The schedule is a bit challenging to start, but the Chiefs will be favored in nearly every game this year, starting in Week 1 at home vs. the Browns.

Kansas City at one point was +7500 on WynnBET to win 17 games during the regular season. That number has dropped down to +4000, but purely based on talent and value alone, I may consider throwing a few bucks down. For now, I’ll side with the easy over and bank on a nice 14-3 season with another No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

PREDICTION: OVER 12 WINS (-150)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 14 WINS (+600)

Donnavan Smoot:

Unless I said they were going to miss the playoffs, everything has been said about the Kansas City Chiefs. They are the most dominant team with the best quarterback and the regular season is just a four-month-long warmup to their postseason run. 

Kansas City did get somewhat exposed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but not every team has the personnel of the Buccaneers, nor will the Chiefs’ offensive line be that bad again. The Chiefs retooled their offensive line in the offseason and should be ready to go. 

The one thing that does concern me about Kansas City is their lack of a true third offensive weapon. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is looking like he might be injury-prone and the world is still waiting on Mecole Hardman to have a breakout year. If either of those two can get going, then Kansas City will be as potent as ever. 

On defense, Kansas City needs to replicate what it did last season. The Chiefs were the 16th-best team in yards allowed but were top 10 in points allowed. That “bend-don’t-break” is going to be crucial for the Chiefs, so every game doesn’t become a shootout. 

Regardless, the Chiefs are going to be dominant and win the AFC West, so let’s just enjoy the level of football we’ll watch. 

PREDICTION: OVER 12 WINS (-150)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 13 WINS (+325)

Peter Dewey:

Kansas City just somehow keeps finding ways to get better. 

After losing Super Bowl 55, the Chiefs fixed their biggest weakness, the offensive line, by bringing in Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. 

Both moves are huge for Patrick Mahomes and company this year, and I almost took Kansas City to win 15 games in this preview, but I felt that there has to be a little room for error. Taking the Chiefs to win over 12 games feels like a no-brainer, especially if everyone stays healthy on the offensive side of the ball. 

Kansas City’s defense will need to play better than it did in the Super Bowl, but it did allow the 10th-fewest points in the NFL last season. I’m all in on the Chiefs, and they have a great chance of making it back to the Super Bowl this season. 

PREDICTION: OVER 12 WINS (-150)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 14 WINS (+600)

Iain MacMillan:

Every single football fan knows about the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is amazing, the defense is solid, their glaring weakness was their offensive line and they addressed it in the offseason, mainly by trading for Orlando Brown.

With that being said, I will point out one stat you should pay attention to this season. Their defense was dead last in red zone defense. They need to improve that this year.

The Chiefs drew a tough 17th game this season, as their added game on the schedule will be against the Green Bay Packers. They do have home field advantage in that game, but you should keep that game in mind when betting on their win total.

PREDICTION: OVER 12 WINS (-150)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 13 WINS (+325)

Will the Kansas City Chiefs Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (+550), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-1100)

Ben Heisler: 

Yes. They’re the Chiefs. Please find a better way to bet than $1100 to win $100, however.

PREDICTION: YES (-1100)

Donnavan Smoot:

What I am about to say is self-explanatory: If the Chiefs are healthy, they win the division and make the playoffs. 

That is all I have to say on the subject.

PREDICTION: 

Peter Dewey: 

Now, I wouldn’t recommend taking the -1100 juice on the Chiefs making the playoffs when you can get them at -310 to win the AFC West, but that’s just me. 

It would take an injury to Mahomes for Kansas City to miss the postseason this year, and we saw in 2019 that he could miss a few games in the middle of the season and Kansas City could still win the Super Bowl. 

Mahomes is the game’s best player and it’s not even close (and that’s coming from an Aaron Rodgers stan), and when you surround him with a roster like Kansas City has, you’re going to be a surefire playoff team. 

PREDICTION: YES (-1100)

Iain MacMillan:

Nobody in their right mind is going to bet on the Chiefs to not make the playoffs. In the same breath, nobody in their right mind is going to lay -1100 juice on this prop bet.

The Chiefs will almost certainly win the AFC West, and if they don’t, there’s no reason they won’t make the playoffs barring several major injuries.

PREDICTION: YES (-1100)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey, and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff, and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Up next, we preview the betting outlook for the Los Angeles Chargers and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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