Kansas City Weather Suggests Betting the Under in Steelers vs Chiefs

Look at Steelers QB Ben Roethliberger raising his hand in the photo above, seemingly saying he's the reason to bet the UNDER in Steelers-Chiefs game. That's right. But only part of the reason.

The OVER/UNDER for Steelers at Chiefs in the AFC Wild Card is set at 46.0 points at WynnBET. That might seem low for a Chiefs team that averaged 28.2 points per game this year, fourth-best in the NFL, but there's another stat I'm more interested in when it comes to why I'm betting the UNDER in this game, and it revolves around the temperature.

Since 2010, the UNDER has cashed in 19-out-of 22 games when the temperature is sub-32 degrees. The temperature in Kansas City for kickoff (8:30 ET) is expected to be 33 degrees. While that's not quite 32, the difference is negligible. And that's not the only reason to favor the UNDER here.

In the regular season, the UNDER hit in 62.5% of Steelers games minus one push (10-6-1). A big reason why is the Steelers defense gives up TDs just 50.8% of the time opponents reach the red zone, fourth-best in the NFL. While they did give up 36 points in the first game against the Chiefs, they didn't give up more than 14 in any of their other last four games. I expect at least a slight uptick from their defense in this one.

On the other side, the Chiefs defense is most susceptible against the run, giving up 4.8 rushing yards per game, 31st in the league. The only team worse against the run is the, you guessed it, Pittsburgh Steelers. That favors a run-heavy attack.

Everything suggests this will be a low-scoring game, from the weather to the style of defenses to the Steelers aging quarterback who throws for the fewest air yards in the NFL. I won't overthink this. I'll believe in the numbers.