Kansas State vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 11 (K-State Keeps Playing the Wrong QB)

Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez (9)
Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez (9) / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas State had a chance to climb the Big 12 standings, but instead suffered a 34-27 loss to Texas last week at home. Now the 6-3 Wildcats are No. 23 in the AP poll heading into a matchup with 6-3 Baylor who is riding high after a 38-35 win over Oklahoma. The Bears are slight favorites at home and have a chance to hand Adrian Martinez and K-State their second straight loss. 

Let’s take a look at the Vegas odds for this one and the important betting trends between Baylor and Kansas State. 

Kansas State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor and K-State Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 6-3 ATS
  • K-State is 5-3-1 ATS
  • The Over is 7-2 in Baylor games
  • Over is 6-0 in Baylor’s last six games
  • Underdog is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings

Kansas State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Kansas State went with the wrong quarterback against Texas last week. Will Howard should have started that game regardless of the health of Adrian Martinez. Howard is the better passer and Texas is far more vulnerable in the secondary than they are against the run. Martinez ended up throwing for 329 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 24-of-36 passing, but chucking the ball around isn’t his game. The Wildcats are a run-first team with Martinez and yet they finished the game with 139 yards rushing compared to Texas’s 269 on the ground. 

The same might be true this week when Martinez will almost certainly start again. Baylor ranks 43rd against the run and 65th against the pass. The splits aren’t as drastic, but they are still a problem for the style of offense that the Wildcats run with Martinez and Deuce Vaughn. 

Craig Williams who went for 192 yards and two touchdowns last week against Oklahoma, and should run the ball more effectively than Kansas State. The Wildcats also do not stop the run well and it will be their downfall this week. 

Pick: Baylor -2.5 (-110)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change