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Kansas State vs. Butler Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 30 (Books Laying Trap to Bet Wildcats)

By Ben Heisler

Butler Bulldogs head coach Thad Matta is off to a 4-3 start in his return to the team.
Butler Bulldogs head coach Thad Matta is off to a 4-3 start in his return to the team. / Armond Feffer/IndyStar / USA TODAY
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The Big East - Big 12 Challenge moves forward from Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tonight when the undefeated Kansas State Wildcats face the 4-3 Butler Bulldogs.

K-State continues to impress under new head coach Jerome Tang, taking down LSU in the Cayman Islands Classic title with a 61-59 victory and handing the Tigers their first loss of the year.

Meanwhile, Butler struggled out in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis, getting thumped by Tennessee, defeating BYU, and then losing in another blowout to NC State to close out their tournament.

Will some home cooking at Hinkle do the Bulldogs some good? Or will K-State continue to roll regardless of where they're playing?

Here are the latest odds for tonight:

Kansas State vs. Butler Odds, Spread and Total

Kansas State vs. Butler Prediction and Pick

At first glance, the undefeated K-State team seems like a bargain at +3.5, right? Sure they're on the road, but it's not as if they've lived at home so far this season. They already have a road win at Cal, and just beat Rhode Island, Nevada and LSU in the Cayman Islands.

However, the line movement has been on Butler consistently throughout the day, and a large part of it may be due to the Bulldogs' ability to cover at home. Butler is 3-0 ATS at Hinkle this year, with a margin of victory of 37 points and an ATS +/- of +18.3. Those are massive numbers, and the Bulldogs rank 14th in that measure in the entire sport.

As far as the matchup itself is concerned, while Kansas State has the biggest advantage on defense, ranked 39th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency model compared to Butler's 119th ranking on offense, one key issue for K-State has been turnovers. The Wildcats struggle to take care of the basketball, ranked bottom 50 in the country, and that's a key area of strength for Butler. The Bulldogs also are extremely efficient around the basketball, ranked 25th in 2-point percentage and top 40 in effective field goal percentage.

I think the books are laying a big trap with K-State tonight, so I'll be walking to the other side and riding with the "Dogs" as a short home favorite.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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