Kansas State vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 12
By Reed Wallach
Kansas was shocked at home against Texas Tech amidst another quarterback injury to Jason Bean, losing to Texas Tech on a last-second field goal.
It won't get easier for the Jayhawks, who host rival Kansas State on Saturday at home as a considerable underdog. Will Jason Bean be good to go for this one, or will it be third-stringer Cole Ballard under center again?
Let's break it down below:
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Kansas State vs. Kansas Odds, Spread and Total
Kansas vs. Kansas State Betting Trends
- Kansas State is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Kansas is 3-1 ATS as an underdog
- Kansas State has gone OVER in six of 10 games
- Kansas State is 6-2 ATS as a favorite
Kansas State vs. Kansas How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 18th
- Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
- Kansas State Record: 7-3
- Kansas Record: 7-3
Kansas State vs. Kansas Key Players to Watch
Kansas State
Will Howard: Howard has split time under center with freshman Avery Johnson at times, but he has anchored an elite offense for the majority of the season. He has completed 64% of his passes for 2,167 yards with 21 touchdowns but has thrown eight interceptions. Overall, this team is dynamic, 15th in success rate and 21st in EPA/Play, but Howard has been prone to some mistakes.
Kansas
Devin Neal: Kansas' unique offense has been able to transition from Jalon Daniels to Jason Bean, but Bean left last week's game with a concussion and third-stringer Cole Ballard is a significant downgrade. Neal did his best to keep the offense afloat and nearly win the game, rushing 19 times for 137 yards with a touchdown, and he'll need to do similar to get past K-State's defense which is 14th in EPA/Play.
Kansas State vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
The latest update we have on Bean, whose status is paramount to this game, was that head coach Lance Leipold is "confident" he will be back after suffering a concussion last week. Either way, I'm still concerned that the Jayhawks can hold up against an electric Kansas State offense.
The Jayhawks defense continues to struggle this season, 112th in EPA/Play and particularly poor against the run, 124th in EPA/Rush allowed. K-State is one of the best running teams in the sport, 20th in yards per carry at over five yards and averaging north of three points per drive, 11th in the nation.
The team's ability to establish the run and generate scoring opportunities -- the Wildcats are fourth in the country in red zone touchdown percentage at 80% -- will be too much for the Jayhawks to overcome.
Let's say Bean does play, I still am not all that confident in the Jayhawks' ability to stay close (but you may get a better price on Kansas State). While the Jayhawks stunned Oklahoma at home as a near-double-digit underdog, it was out-gained on a yards-per-play perspective and success rate mark. The team's win at Iowa State included a pick-six, and I believe the team is going to close the season poorly behind its poor defense.
Just last year, K-State blitzed an upstart Kansas team 47-27. While the teams are slightly different, I believe the Wildcats are still potent on offense and the Jayhawks are still trotting out a less dynamic player in Daniels (even if he's replacement level).
Lay it with the road favorite.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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