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Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Odds (Betting Guide for Big 12 Matchup)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 29, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs center Eddie Lampkin (4) celebrates with fans after beating LSU.
Jan 29, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs center Eddie Lampkin (4) celebrates with fans after beating LSU. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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TCU has become a darling of sorts in the Big 12, jumping out to a 5-3 record to go with their 15-4 overall start. Jamie Dixon may have his best team since coming to Fort Worth in 2016 and will look to keep their momentum going in hopes of solidifying their NCAA Tournament standing against Kansas State.

The Wildcats have been a thorn in the side of many in the Big 12 this season and will look to spark another upset on the road on Saturday night after eeking out a close win against Oklahoma State in the final seconds on Wednesday night.

How should we bet this Big 12 showdown? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Kansas State vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Kansas State: +4.5 (-110)
  • TCU: -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Kansas State: +155
  • TCU: -190

Total: 128.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

This game may not be pretty considering both teams play at a snails pace and defensive minded clubs.

Both offenses are outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage while inside the top 50 in that metric on the defensive side. I do lean with the Horned Frogs getting the job done given their the superior rebounding team, best in Big 12 play on the defensive glass while generating second chances at a top three league rate. However, can they win with margin given they are a poor free throw shooting team (66% on the year as a team) and like to generate offense from the inside.

Kansas State can hang around if they can hit their three's. The team is just outside top 100 in three-point rate but are hitting them at nearly 35% in Big 12 play. However, counting on a victory may be tough on the road when they are a poor free throw shooting team and they get their at the lowest rate in conference play.

I lean with TCU pulling away late on the scoreboard, but be wary laying points with this team to cover by more than a possession with their inability to close it out at the line. My favorite play would be to pair TCU with another favorite.

LEAN: TCU ML

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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