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Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Odds for Big 12 Championship Game (How to Bet Total)

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) stands in the
Nov 26, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) stands in the / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
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TCU's quest for the College Football Playoff is at the final stages with a win against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship locking in their spot inside the top four.

The Horned Frogs 12-0 regular season included a win at home against Kansas State, but not without some controversy, as the Wildcats had both starting and backup quarterbacks Adrian Martinez and Will Howard get hurt during the course of the game. TCU won 38-28, but the Wildcats have been rolling ever since, winning four of five games.

What can we expect on Saturday afternoon with the conference title on the line? Here are the odds and our betting preview:

Kansas State vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Kansas State vs. TCU Betting Trends

  • TCU covered as 3.5-point home favorites on October 22nd and the game went over the total of 54.5 (38-28)
  • Kansas State is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • TCU is 9-2-1 ATS
  • TCU went OVER in seven of 12 games
  • Kansas State has gone OVER in three of four games as an underdog

Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

This should be a fascinating matchup as Kansas State had a 28-10 lead on TCU on the road before injuries derailed their upset bid.

Now, they get another crack at the undefeated Horned Frogs with backup Howard taking over for Martinez full time after the Nebraska transfer got hurt against Baylor. The Kansas State offense hasn't missed a beat, hanging 31 on Baylor, 48 on West Virginia and 47 on Kansas.

However, this TCU defense has been resilient of late, shutting down Texas to 10 points on the road, Baylor to 28 and Iowa State to 14. The Wildcats were able to rush for over five yards per carry on TCU last time out, but the Horned Frogs have been stout this season against rush attacks (top 40 in EPA/Rush).

Neither team plays fast, both bottom third in terms of seconds per play and the Wildcats run the ball at a top 25 clip. Kansas State bolsters a strong defense that bends but doesn't break, top 30 in points allowed per drive and I see this total inflated following Kansas State gashing a few middling defenses.

The last meeting had a total of 54.5, and while Howard may add a boost to the passing game for the Wildcats, this total shouldn't be adjusted eight points up. I'll grab the under.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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