Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 10

With a potential spot in the Big 12 Championship on the line, how should we bet it?

Oct 28, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy (6) looks to pass during
Oct 28, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy (6) looks to pass during / Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Texas survived its first test without Quinn Ewers, who is nursing a shoulder injury, as the team shut down BYU en tourte to a 35-6 win.

However, the competition picks up for Maalik Murphy and the Longhorns as the defending Big 12 champions Kansas State come to Austin to face the Longhorns after winning its past two games by a score of 82-3. How will the Longhorns respond to facing a formidable opponent with a ton of momentum?

Here's everything you need to know for this high leverage Big 12 matchup:

Kansas State vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Texas vs. Kansas State Betting Trends

  • Kansas State is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Kansas State is 1-0 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Texas is 4-3 ATS this season
  • Texas has gone UNDER in six of seven games this season

Kansas State vs. Texas How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 4th
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Kansas State Record: 6-2
  • Texas Record: 7-1

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Kansas State vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Kansas State

DJ Giddens: Kansas State's offense hasn't missed a beat despite losing the likes of Deuce Vaughn from last year's title team. Gidden has stepped right into the role as the team's lead back, averaging north of six yards per carry on 116 touches. Overall, the team is 15th in the country in EPA/Play around offensive coordinator Collin Klein's unique play calling.


Maalik Murphy: Murphy drew his first start of his career for the banged-up Ewers and was fine in a simplistic game script that featured the Longhorns getting up early and never being in danger of losing. Murphy completed 16-of-25 passes for 170 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, but he didn't run at all, only taking an 18-yard sack.

This week's slate is massive, get ready for Alabama-LSU and Georgia-Missouri here with our betting deep dive!

Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

The weak point of the Kansas State defense is its secondary. The team has been handled by pass-happy offenses this year, including losing by eight at Oklahoma State and allowing 30 to Missouri in a loss. Even UCF was able to pass on this defense with a backup quarterback, scoring 31 points on an 88th percentile EPA/Dropback according to gameonpaper.com relative to last year's games.

The Longhorns can take the top off of defenses with the likes of Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell at wide receiver, but head coach Steve Sarkisian hasn't utilized the team that way outside of the Alabama game. The team is in the bottom half of the country in explosive pass offense and is particularly struggling to score inside the red zone, scoring a touchdown on just 48% of trips inside the 20-yard line, bottom 15 nationally.

It's worth noting that Kansas State is third in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed this season, allowing a touchdown on 30% of opponents' drives that enter the team's 20.

With a backup quarterback, I'm curious if Sarkisian pushes the buttons to take advantage of the Wildcats' weakness. With a game that may be played more on the ground and with both defenses getting off the field on third down, each unit is top 25 in success rate allowed, I believe this will be a lower-scoring affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!