Kansas vs. Texas Southern Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament (Strong Defenses Give Under Value)

Might as well start penciling Texas Southern in as a First Four winner every year. The 19-12 No. 16 Tigers won their third First Four game last night and get rewarded with a matchup against the 28-6 No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas has won five straight and covered the spread in four straight as they steamrolled through the Big 12 Conference Tournament after winning the regular season title as well. They're led by AP First Team All-American and Naismith Player of the Year candidate Ochai Agbaji but are among the deepest groups Bill Self has had in Lawrence.

Texas Southern won the SWAC Tournament and have wins in 13 of their last 15, but they're just 6-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in that stretch.

Can the Tigers keep it close or will Kansas overpower the underdogs? Could Texas Southern even pull off the upset!? Probably not, but perhaps they can cover.

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to help us find value in this NCAA Tournament First Round matchup:

Kansas vs Texas Southern Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Kansas -21.5 (-110)
• Texas Southern +21.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Kansas: -6000
• Texas Southern: +1600

Total:

• 144.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kansas vs Texas Southern Betting Trends, Insights and Analysis

Kansas

• Regular Season Record: 28-6

• ATS Record:17-17

• Over/Under Record: 18-14-2

• SoS: 4th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4

• Defensive Efficiency: 93.9

• eFG%: 54.1%

• FT%: 72.4%

• 3PT%: 35.5%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: Second Round

• Odds to win National Championship: +1500

Texas Southern

• Regular Season Record: 18-12

• ATS Record:16-13

• Over/Under Record: 13-17

• SoS: 269th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 98.1

• Defensive Efficiency: 99.4

• eFG%: 48.7%

• FT%: 67.1%

• 3PT%: 31.6%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: First Round

• Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field) 

Kansas vs Texas Southern Prediction and Pick

It may not be Missouri, but the Jayhawks should have no problem taking care of the Tigers. Kansas has advantages at every level of the floor and are peaking at the right time. Transfer guard Remy Martin, who was the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, finally looks healthy and provided a spark in the Big 12 Tournament to go alongside Agbaji's consistency, Christian Braun's dynamism, and David McCormack's power.

Texas Southern is stout defensively, ranking in the 100th percentile in rating over their last five, and are extremely difficult to score on. But they haven't faced a team as talented as the Jayhawks and over the course of 40 minutes, that talent will prevail.

Kansas' defensive pressure has amped up in recent weeks. They held each of their last five opponents to 68 points or fewer and are in the 96th percentile in defensive rating themselves over that stretch. But they haven't been shooting well, especially from beyond the arc (30.9% in last five).

I'm worried about a potential backdoor cover from a Tigers squad that hangs tough, but I can't bet against the Jayhawks either. So instead, I'll look to the total. With both teams playing suffocating defense right now and Kansas struggling shooting the ball, the under presents a lot of value.

Blowouts, which this is likely to be, don't carry the same threat of constant free throws at the end of the game to push a total over, so I'm always inclined to look to the under with a large spread. But the stylistic matchup and recent trends support an under play as well. It's 4-2 in Kansas' previous six and 7-2 in Texas Southern's last nine as an underdog. I expect those trends to continue.

Pick: Under 144.5 (-110) - Kansas Advances

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

Follow BetSided's March Madness Hub throughout the entirety of the NCAA men's and women's tournaments for full betting previews and picks for every game, updated betting odds , futures for the Final Four and national championship, insights, trends, videos, podcasts and more!