Keep Betting Overs at Wrigley Field with Padres' Hot Bats and Cubs’ Pitching in Shambles
By Ben Heisler
Here's a fun fact for anyone that's not a Chicago Cubs fan.
In their last four games, Chicago has allowed 53 total runs; 13.25 per game. They've given up a MINIMUM of 8 runs in five of their last games, and in the last two vs. the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field, Chicago allowed (checks notes) 31 runs scored at home against the Friars.
The Cubs' team ERA wasn't great heading into last Sunday's game in New York vs. the Yankees, but it was somewhat respectable at 4.38. In just four games, it's gone all the way up to 4.93.
This is the first game in Padres history where all of their starters recorded a run scored and a RBI in the same game….And the Cubs are the first team to allow 18 runs in 3 games in a season since the 2008 Rangers.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) June 16, 2022
With more games set to continue on the North Side of Chicago; beginning today with the series finale vs. the Padres at 2:20 p.m. EST, it's time for bettors to consider putting an automatic over bet in until otherwise noted.
In 34 home games this season, the Cubs are 18-13-3 in overs; hitting at a 58.1% clip. When they are a home underdog, the over record is 13-7-2; hitting 65% of the time.
Wrigley Field has the most up-and-down weather to deal with in all of baseball. When the wind is blowing in off of Lake Michigan, it becomes one of, if not the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball.
When the wind is blowing out, however, it's the complete opposite effect. With the weather heating up in Chicago, hot humid conditions mixed with ideal hitting wind conditions is turning the Friendly Confines into an absolute nightmare for pitchers, as well as for unders to hit.
Wrigley Field (6/16)#Padres @ #Cubs
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) June 16, 2022
Wind: 13 mph ⬆, Impact: Extreme
Temp: 83° (+12° vs park avg)
HRs: +25%, XBH: +8%, Runs: +15.2%#BallparkPalParkPreviews pic.twitter.com/X5xOxCigEW
Just how much can the wind impact a ball mid-flight? One example tracked a ball hit 400 feet in calm weather conditions. But a 15 mph gust blowing straight out could add as much as 45 feet to the ball; taking a ball the warning track in center field several rows deep in the bleachers.
The total is set at 10.5 at WynnBET Sportsbook for today's matchup between the Padres and Cubs at Wrigley, with Chicago listed as a +151 moneyline underdog.
Sounds like the recipe for another home over play for me.
Follow all of Ben's bets in real-time at BetStamp HERE