Kennesaw State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Odds for Monday, December 12 (Aztecs Get Back on Track)
By Reed Wallach
San Diego State entered the season as one of the darlings of the mid-majors, but the team has had a few setbacks along the way, losing three games all to elite competition.
However, the team gets an opportunity to beat up on a lesser foe in Kennesaw State on Monday night. The Owls are 6-3 on the year and hung tough with Florida and VCU earlier this season, but will they sustain their hot shooting on the road?
Here are the odds and our best bet:
Kennesaw State vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total
Kennesaw State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick
The Owls are a top 10 3-point shooting team in the country, the only redeeming quality for this offense that is bottom third in the country in 2-point percentage and free throw percentage. I don't believe this team can keep it up, especially on the road against the 22nd best defense according to KenPom.
San Diego State is a turnover heavy defense that can apply pressure to the Owls offense that struggle with heavy ball pressure defenses. SDSU is 63rd in turnover rate, and for reference Kennesaw State turned it over 14 times against VCU, who is 12th in that same metric.
On the other side, San Diego State's offense is due for some regression, a skilled offense that is shooting 28% from three-point range this season. The team is top 100 in two-point percentage and free throw percentage, but can't buy an outside shot.
However, the Owls are a weak defensive team, outside the top 300 in 3-point percentage allowed and opponent free throw rate allowed. I think San Diego State is due for an offensive outburst given its recent play, the team is rated as the 34th best offense per ShotQuality.
I'll lay the number with the Aztecs as home favorites.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.