Kentucky Derby Dark Horse Picks (Keep an Eye on Smile Happy)
By Matt De Saro
The field is set, the post positions are drawn, and the odds are in for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. So get your weird hats and mint juleps ready because we’re going racing this weekend. The 148th Run for the Roses features a stacked field with several colts worth a look.\
Many of these horses are not the favorites you might expect though. While Zandon (+150), Epicenter (+350), and Messier (+400) are the favorites to win, I wanted to look deeper into the field for some extra value. With that in mind, let's take a look at a couple of dark horse picks for Derby this weekend.
Mo Donegal +1000
Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who has two Derby wins under his belt, Mo Donegal is a fringe longshot I admit. But, he falls outside of the top-tier contenders and therefore qualifies under the rules I just made up for this article. His closing speed is phenomenal and was on full display in his win over Zandon in the Remsen Stakes. in December. Mo Donegal has a strong pedigree as well with a half-brother, Nyquist, who won the Derby in 2016. With two first-place finishes in Grade II events, Mo Donegal deserves better from the oddsmakers. But this just ups the value on him to become the first horse to win from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand did it in 1986.
He does carry some risk as a bit of a starter. But his speed down the stretch usually makes up for it. And with this being a longer race, that closing speed might mean the difference between fourth and first.
Smile Happy +2000
This 2-year-old is among several younger colts to compete in this year’s Run for the Roses. And at 20-1, I think Smile Happy offers the best longshot odds to take the Kentucky Derby. He shares a bloodline with the 2003 winner Funny Cide and has had an impressive year so far. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and placed second in both the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes.
With just two races in 2022, trainer Kenny McPeek is keeping Smile Happy on fresh legs for this event. He did get chased down by Zandon at the Blue Grass Stakes which is not a great sign for his closing speed. He is +2000 for a reason. But, at those odds, Smile Happy is a strong underdog bet for those trying to win big this weekend.