Kentucky Derby Exacta and Trifecta Picks (Forever Young Will Have Best Finish Ever for Japanese Horses)
Pole positions have been set and we are now just days away from the Kentucky Derby and the 150th Run for the Roses.
There are several different ways to bet on horses, including keeping it as straight forward as just betting on which horse will win. In this article, I'm going to give out picks for two other types of wagers, exacta and trifecta.
These types of bets are wagers on which horses will finishing first and second (exacta) and which horses will finish first, second, and third (trifecta). Most people will "box" their exacta and trifecta bets so that way any of the combination of the two (or three) will be a winning bet.
First, let's take a look at the horses, their pole position, and their odds to win. Then, I'll give you my best exacta and trifecta bets for the big race.
Kentucky Derby Pole Position and Odds
The odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook:
- 1 - Dornoch: +1700
- 2 - Sierra Leone: +500
- 3 - Mystik Dan: +2500
- 4 - Catching Freedom: +800
- 5 - Catalytic: +3700
- 6 - Just Steel: +3200
- 7 - Honor Marie: +1700
- 8 - Just A Touch: +1400
- 9 - Encino (scratched)
- 10 - T O Password: +5900
- 11 - Forever Young: +800
- 12 - Track Phantom: +5000
- 13 - West Saratoga: +3000
- 14 - Endlessly: +4700
- 15 - Domestic Product: +3100
- 16 - Grand Mo The First: +5900
- 17 - Fierceness: +200
- 18 - Stronghold: +3900
- 19 - Resilience: +2700
- 20 - Society Man: +6300
- 21 - Epic Ride: +6000
- 22 - Mugatu: +8100
Kentucky Derby Exacta Pick
- 1st - (4) Catching Freedom
- 2nd - (2) Sierra Leone
Remember, you can bet the exacta box so then if these two horses finish any combination of first and second, the bet will win. If you don't want to box them, I like Catching Freedom to win and Sierra Leone to come second.
Catching Freedome has three wins already this season and his finished first (Louisiana Derby), third (Risen Star Stakes), and first (Smarty Jones Stakes) in its last three races. Flavien Prat will be his jockey, who has a great history here. He was the jockey for the winning horse, Country House, back in 2019 and has also finished inside the top three four other times since 2017.
Sierra Leone won this year's Blue Grass Stakes and is one of the most visually impressive horses in the race. There is a bit of a concern with him being in the No. 2 position, but I'm willing to overlook that for my exacta.
Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick
- 1st - (17) Fierceness
- 2nd - (15) Domestic Product
- 3rd - (11) Forever Young
I could take the lazy way out and give you the same two horses as my exacta and toss in a third, but I won't do that. Instead, I'll put the two horses from my exacta to the side and give you a fresh trifecta pick.
We're going to start things off with the betting favorite, Fierceness, who I left off my exacta. Winner of this year's Florida Derby, this horse is the one to beat. I suggest betting on it in some form or fashion or you may live to regret it. It's the only horse in the field that has run two 100+ speed figure races and it ran away from the field in the Florida Derby.
Domestic Product is a long shot at +3100 to win, but the legendary Irad Ortiz Jr. is going to be a jockey, which that alone will give him a shot in this race. He has two wins in 2024 but will have not raced for 56 days come Derby Day.
I made a vow a few years ago that I'd be betting on a Japanese horse in every edition of the Run for the Roses until one wins and this year is no different. The best finish a Japanese horse has had is sixth place, but some people are saying Forever Young is the best one yet. I'm willing to toss him into my trifecta and see what happens.
Remember, you can place a Trifecta Box with these three horses to give yourself a better chance of winning.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!