Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds (Crimson Tide's Home Court Advantage Being Overvalued)

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the best teams in the nation but many consider them underdogs tonight against unranked Alabama.
The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the best teams in the nation but many consider them underdogs tonight against unranked Alabama. / Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

The Alabama Crimson Tide have one heck of a tough game on tap tonight when the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats take over the Coleman Coliseum. The Wildcats are fighting for position in the SEC where they currently rank second with an 18-4 overall record and 7-2 in conference play. Kentucky enters Saturday night on a three-game win streak. By far the most impressive win during that span was an 80-62 blowout over then No. 5 Kansas. It was a huge win and a great bounce-back performance after getting beat by No. 2 Auburn earlier in the week. 

Alabama, meanwhile, is a much tougher team to nail down. Sometimes they look lost while other times they dominate opponents with their potent long-range shooting. With one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation, Alabama presents a surprising challenge for one of the top-ranked teams in the nation. Here are the odds for this SEC showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Kentucky vs. Alabama Odds, Spread, and Total


  • Kentucky EVEN (-110)
  • Alabama EVEN (-110)


  • Kentucky -110
  • Alabama -110

Total: 158 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

I have to say I am a little befuddled by this line. Alabama opened as two-point underdogs but the line moved all the way to Bama -1 before settling as a pick-em as things currently stand. I assume this is due to the fact that the Crimson Tide are 10-1 straight up at home. And while that is all well and good, it only tells half the story. 

First off, they may be winning at home but they are not covering at a high rate. Alabama is just 4-7 ATS at home which is a win rate of just 36.4 percent. As home favorites, they are 3-7 ATS. This only adds to the frustration of trying to predict what Alabama might do. The Crimson Tide has already beaten Gonzaga, Houston, and Baylor this year. All three were in the Final Four last season. Then, they turn around and lose games to teams like Iona, Davidson Memphis, and Mississippi State. That inconstancy is a major reason I am looking to avoid them tonight. 

Secondly, their recent ATS performances have been atrocious. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 0-7 ATS as a home favorite during that span. Bama is also just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. While they are not favored at the moment, that could change quickly. 

I think that the Crimson Tide’s home record is being way overrated and they should not be favored to beat the No. 5 team in the nation just because the game is at home. The Wildcats are not going to roll over and let Bama tickle their bellies. They have a player of the year candidate in Oscar Shiebwe and have the sixth highest-scoring offense in the nation. I wish I’d grabbed the Wildcats as ML underdogs but will have to settle for even odds tonight. 

Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -110 to win

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE