Kentucky vs. Arkansas Prediction and Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 27
By Reed Wallach
Arkansas season is going off the rails, but the team has an opportunity to score a massive win at home against highly ranked Kentucky on Saturday night.
The Razorbacks have struggled to get consistent play all season long while Kentucky has had some road woes in SEC play, apparent in the team's most recent game, a loss at South Carolina. The team will look to get back on track against a talented, yet mercurial Razorbacks team, and oddsmakers are counting on it with a lofty point spread attached to the Wildcats.
Will UK come through for bettors? Here's our look at this SEC matchup:
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Kentucky vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total
Arkansas vs. Kentucky Betting Trends
- Arkansas is 5-14 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Kentucky is 8-6 ATS as a favorite this season
- Arkansas is 2-8 ATS over its last 10 games
- Kentucky is 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games
- Kentucky has gone OVER in 14 of 18 games
Kentucky vs. Arkansas How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, January 27th
- Game Time: 6:00 PM EST
- Venue: Bud Walton Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Kentucky Record: 14-4
- Arkansas Record: 10-9
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Key Players to Watch
Kentucky
Reed Sheppard: On the road against a physical defense, the Wildcats are going to need its freshman ball handler to be at his best. Sheppard is a lethal shooter, 54% shooting from beyond the arc on more than four attempts per game, but he's also a welling passer with four assists per game.
Arkansas
Tramon Mark: Mark is doing the heavy lifting for the Razorbacks, averaging nearly 18 points per game on 52% shooting. The Houston transfer is capable of going off, he scored 35 points against Texas A&M last week and is shooting 40% from beyond the arc. Can he take advantage of a weak Kentucky defense?
Kentucky vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick
I can't trust Kentucky's defense on the road, a unit that is 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. While the team is elite on offense, fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency behind the fifth highest effective field goal percentage, the team may struggle with Arkansas physical play that can dictate the terms of the game.
Arkansas gets to the free throw line at a top 10 rate in the country and is reliant on dominating at the rim. This is a great pressure pint for this team to exploit against Kentucky's defense that is right at the national average in terms of field goal percentage allowed at the rim and don't pressure the ball whatsoever.
The Razorbacks are a tough nut to crack, an incredibly underwhelming season for the Hogs, but the team may be due for some good bounces against Kentucky, who is owed a significant amount of shooting regression, according to ShotQuality (Kentucky is owed a net 0.16 point per possession drop).
With the Wildcats integrating in newly eligible big man Zvonimir Ivisic, there may be more growing pains on the road in a hostile environment. I'll take the points with the home underdog.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.