Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 27 (Take the Over)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Kentucky-Mississippi State.

Feb 24, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) passes the ball against Alabama.
Feb 24, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) passes the ball against Alabama. / Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

No. 17 Kentucky lost on a buzzer-beater to LSU on the road Wednesday but didn’t let that loss linger too long. The high-scoring Wildcats bounced back in a big way in a shootout with No. 13 Alabama, winning 117-95 at Rupp Arena on Saturday. 

Kentucky is trying to play its way into one of the top seeds in the SEC Tournament and are currently one game back of the third-place tie between South Carolina and Auburn. The Wildcats are underdogs for just the sixth time this season when they visit Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are in the middle of the pack in the SEC but have reeled off five consecutive wins since getting blown out by Alabama on the road. 

Here’s the betting preview for Tuesday’s SEC tilt with a best bet. 

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Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

  • Kentucky is 16-11 ATS this season
  • Mississippi State is 14-12-1 ATS this season
  • Kentucky is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Mississippi State is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 19-8 in Kentucky games this season
  • The OVER is 13-14 in Mississippi State games this season

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb. 27
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN+
  • Kentucky record: 19-8 (9-5 SEC)
  • Mississippi State record: 19-8 (8-6 SEC)

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch


Zvonimir Ivisic: When “Big Z” is on, Kentucky’s already elite offense is untouchable. The 7-foot-2 freshman played just four minutes in the previous two games but turned in 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting in Kentucky’s win over Alabama on Saturday. Ivisic is shooting nearly 60% from the field in limited minutes since becoming eligible but Kentucky has scored 100-plus points and is 3-0 when Ivisic scores in double figures. 

Mississippi State

Tolu Smith: Smith is averaging 16.8 points per game this season and shooting 59.7% from the field. The 6-foot-11 senior forward has combined for 43 points on 16-of-29 shooting over the last two games with 15 rebounds in that stretch. Smith has five double-doubles under his belt this season, all of them during conference play. 

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Back on Jan. 17, Mississippi State visited Lexington and Kentucky used a dominant first half (47-29) to cruise past the Bulldogs, 90-77. That night, Kentucky still put up 90 points despite a 7-of-23 performance from 3-point range. The Wildcats shot 55.6% from the field and got to the free-throw line 27 times.

Is any number too high for Kentucky? The Wildcats have been an over machine (19-8) with KenPom’s No. 8 overall offense that plays at the No. 18 tempo in the nation. Mississippi State has the defense on paper to match up with the high-flying Wildcats. Mississippi State ranks No. 11 in defensive efficiency. Kentucky is the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the country and Mississippi State is No. 4 at defending shots from beyond the arc.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s offensive metrics aren’t pretty as the Bulldogs rank No. 270 in turnover percentage and struggle from downtown (No. 254). However, Kentucky does not produce a lot of takeaways (No. 209 in turnover percentage) and is 13th in the SEC in scoring (77.9 points per game allowed). Mississippi State’s offense may have hit its stride, though, scoring 80-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time in SEC play and first time this season since the first week of non-conference action. Take the over up to 157. 

Pick: Over 156

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.