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Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Odds (Take Vols with Short Number to Cover in Rocky Top)

By Ben Heisler

The Tennessee Volunteers are 1.5-point home favorites against the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats in tonight's SEC showdown.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 1.5-point home favorites against the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats in tonight's SEC showdown. / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA
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One of the top matchups on Tuesday's college hoops slate goes down in Rocky Top as the No. 16 Tennessee Volunteers welcome the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats in Knoxville.

Only one game separates both teams in the SEC, with the Wildcats just a game back of the Auburn Tigers who sit 11-1 in conference play.

Tennessee has yet to lose at home, but can they also cover a short spread against Big Blue?

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Kentucky +2 (-110)
  • Tennessee -2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Kentucky +105
  • Tennessee -125

Total:

  • 141 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

I mentioned at the top that the Volunteers have not lost a game at Thompson-Boling Arena this year. Not only are they undefeated, but they've been absolutely untouchable. The Volunteers are 13-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +20.5 points.

Stylistically, both teams match up well against each other. The Wildcats are fourth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, but the Vols are sixth in adjusted defense. Both teams have outstanding length and size, so it's no surprise that both teams are amongst the best in the country in offensive rebounding percentage as well as blocks.

Here's where I believe the game will be won: turnovers and three-point shots.

Kentucky is tops in the SEC in turnovers allowed, and Tennessee is No. 1 in forced turnovers. In a close game, a few costly mistakes can be the difference in both winning and covering the spread. The Wildcats also rank No. 1 in three point percentage at 37.6%, but the Vols are right behind them at 35.7%; third in the SEC. If Tennessee can shore up their defense in guarding on the perimeter, that will also help close the gap.

The Vols will be fired up at home, especially after getting blown out in Lexington 101-79 exactly one month ago. I like them to get the win, but feel a tad more comfortable on the moneyline without giving up the two points.

LEAN: Tennessee ML -125

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