Keys for Cincinnati to Upset Alabama in College Football Playoff Semifinal

No. 4 Cincinnati enters the College Football Playoff in uncharted territory, the lone Group of Five team to ever make the CFP.

In a chaotic season, Cincy outlasted the more heralded programs and locked up a spot in the top four, but are handed one of the toughest tests imaginable; a Cotton Bowl game with No. 1 Alabama.

Cincy enters as 13.5-point underdogs at WynnBET Sportsbook with a total set at 57.5 (Over -115/Under -105) against the Crimson Tide, led by Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young.

It won't be easy, but how should Cincinnati look to limit Alabama's offense and keep this game within range for one of the biggest upsets in College Football history?

Cincinnati Defense: Get Pressure on Young

It's a fool's errand to just say that the Bearcats defense will shut down Alabama's vaunted offense, but there is a recipe for success.

While the Tide are fresh off a drubbing against Georgia in the SEC Championship, scoring 41 points on the best defense in the country by all regards, the Bearcats' secondary is one of the most dangerous in the country.

The team is third in interceptions and has the most turnovers gained in college football. This is a veteran unit that is top 20 in havoc rate, which factors in passes defended, forced fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss on a per play basis.

However, this Alabama passing attack will be the toughest they have seen all season. The Bearcats are bottom half of country in explosive pass defense and must not let Jameson Williams get behind their secondary. It does help that the Tide will not have John Metchie in this one after he tore his ACL in the SEC title game, but the Bearcats are going to need to be on red alert all game for the deep pass and limit Young's time in the pocket.

The Crimson Tide offensive line played stellar in the SEC championship game, but this has been an underwhelming group by Alabama standards, ranking 76th in offensive line yards and has let up 35 sacks this season, which is 99th in the country on a per game basis.

Of course, they will have size on the AAC champion Bearcats defensive line, but this is a unit that is top 10 in success rate and allowing just over three yards per carry. The Bearcats are going to need to keep the Alabama rushing attack at bay and force some pressure on Young so that he can't go through his progressions. The Heisman winner's completion percentage drops to 47% when facing pressure this season, per Pro Football Focus.

If Cincinnati can keep up on the line and get pressure on Young, they can get off the field and avoid getting into a shootout with the Bama offense. If Young has time to sit and go through his progressions, he's going to carve the Bearcats defense up one way or another.

Cincinnati Offense: Ridder the Runner?

Desmond Ridder has been in big games before. He nearly pulled an upset over Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year and led the Bearcats into South Bend to knock off the Irish on the road in a top 10 matchup.

That being said, this is a different type of opponent and setting. Ridder is going to need to challenge this Alabama defensive front that is top five in tackles for loss with his legs. We have seen the Cincy QB use his legs with great success and it would be wise for the Bearcats offense to factor in several read options to catch the Alabama offense being too aggressive.

I don't envision there will be many opportunities for traditional running plays for the Bearcats' running back group, headlined by Jerome Ford, against a 'Bama defense allowing a measly 2.5 yards per carry. However by using RPO's to free up the 6'4" Ridder along the edge, that can keep the Crimson Tide pass rush off a bit longer.

If Ridder is able to use his legs at times to keep the Bearcats' offense ahead of schedule, that can free up some time to attack a vulnerable Alabama secondary that has struggled with the likes of K.J. Jefferson of Arkansas and Emory Jones of Florida. Both are mobile quarterbacks that had moments of excellence against the Alabama secondary.

The Tide are 63rd in explosive pass defense this season, if Ridder can establish himself as a threat to run, it can open up some chunk plays down field.

Hidden Advantages?

Keep an eye on special teams in this game. Cincinnati's kicking game has been a major question mark all season, and the team is onto true freshman kicker Christian Lowery, who has hit two of four kicks with a long of 32 and is 20-26 on PAT's. It will be interesting to see how Luke Fickell deploys his kicking game given Lowery's struggles this season.

Alabama is much more clean in the kicking department, hitting 17-of-21 kicks this season.

However, the Crimson Tide have been very undisciplined this season, racking up the 14th most penalty yards this season. This can be a theme throughout the game if Alabama struggles to get off the field due to self inflicted wounds. Cincinnati is not clean in this area, but are closer to the middle of the pack, ranking 74th in penalty yards per game.