Kings vs. Heat Prediction and Odds (Depleted Kings Offense Gives Under Value)

The 47-28 Miami Heat head into tonight's 7:30 p.m. EST contest against the 27-48 Sacramento Kings in the midst of a terrible slump.

Miami has lost four in a row and failed to cover the spread in seven straight. The Heat have gone from a comfortable hold on the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference to a tie with the surging Celtics and are in desperate need to right the ship before the playoffs get underway.

Sacramento, meanwhile, has won two in a row after a three-game skid and hope to build off a 115-113 win over the Heat earlier this year.

Can Miami get back on track in a crucial game or will the Kings keep it close on the road?

Let's check out the odds over at WynnBET to help us find value in this Kings vs. Heat matchup:

Kings vs Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Kings +12.5 (-110)
• Heat -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Kings: +650
• Heat: -1000

Total:

• 217 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kings vs Heat Prediction and Pick

There may not be a better team for Miami to play right now than the Kings. Sacramento will be missing both Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox and will resemble more of a G-League team than a competitive NBA one.

But Miami is in such dire straights that may not even matter. During this slump, the Heat lost to a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, as well as a Philadelphia 76ers team missing Joel Embiid and James Harden. They're 23rd in the NBA in net rating over the last two weeks and the tensions are boiling over.

The Kings actually have a better net rating than Miami does over the last couple of weeks and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog. Their most recent two games were against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers though, so the competition hasn't exactly been fierce.

At some point, the Heat are going to snap out of it. They've been one of the best teams in the league all season and know how important these games are in the playoff race.

I think they refocus defensively and take advantage of a Sacramento squad missing its two best players. In the last four games without the injured Fox, the Kings are playing at a much slower pace and have a bottom-five offense. Combine that with how poorly the Heat offense is playing and we've got the ingredients for an under.

Miami is a defensive-minded team. That means to get back on track, they'll lock in on that end of the floor and hope the offense comes to them. As a result, I love the under tonight, especially against a Kings offense that'll be featuring Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles instead of Fox and Sabonis.

Pick: Under 217 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.