Kirk Cousins' Road Stats Give Bills Betting Value Against Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills game in Week 10 is impossible to bet right now with the uncertainty surrounding Josh Allen. The Bills All-Pro quarterback hasn't practiced this week as he deals with an elbow injury, but could play on Sunday. Or maybe he doesn't as it could creep up to a true gametime decision.
Because of the unknown, the spread and total for this game have shifted wildly since the beginning of the week. While I'm not sure about Allen, I am sure about Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. He sucks on the road and so my lean right now is to back the Bills' against the spread.
Here's how the latest odds stack up for Sunday's matchup:
Vikings vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total
Vikings vs. Bills Line Movement
The Vikings-Bills spread opened at Bills -7.5 and has fallen all the way down to Bills -3.5 since word leaked that Allen is dealing with a UCL injury to his throwing elbow. Case Keenum, who started for the Vikings and was displaced by Minnesota for its current starter, Cousins, several years ago, would start in Allen's place if the latter can't play.
Vikings vs. Bills Prediction and Best Bet
I don't care who's starting for Buffalo. I'm taking the Bills and Cousins is the reason why.
This year, the Vikings QB is completing just 61% of his passes on the road and has thrown 6 TDs to 5 INTs for a rating of 77.7. All of those games have come outdoors, and wouldn't you guess it, Buffalo is going to have unfriendly weather conditions on Sunday.
The weather report projects a windy and cold day in Buffalo on Sunday with snow showers in the morning. The temperature is expected to be in the high 30s or low 40s and the wind will blow 10-20 MPH.
Buffalo's defense should feast in these conditions. They have the seventh-highest sack percentage in the NFL (8.10%) and force the highest percentage of interceptions (4.21%). At home, they're even more dominant, giving up only 2 passing TDs against 4 INTs this season, while limiting opposing QBs to a 69.4 quarterback rating.
If the Vikings decide to run, they'll face the sixth-best rush defense in the league. The Bills give up 104.9 rushing yards per game and less than one rushing TD per game. So far they've only given up one rushing TD all year at home.
The Vikings have escaped with narrow wins over the Lions, Saints, Bears and Commanders this season. They got humiliated by the Eagles, one of only two teams with a winning record they've beaten so far. The other was the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa out. I'm not buying with they're selling, especially with Kirk Cousins on the road.
PICK: Bills -3.5 (-110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.