Klay Thompson Over/Under: How Many Points Per Game Will He Average?

Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson is easing himself back into the swing of things after missing two full seasons with injuries to his knee and Achilles. 

While Thompson has been on a minutes restriction since making his 2021-22 season debut on Jan. 9, he's starting to see an increase in playing time, averaging 25.9 minutes per game over his last five contests. 

As the Warriors continue to ramp up Thompson’s playing time, his numbers are only going to improve this season. Right now, Klay is averaging 16.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. 

While his scoring numbers aren’t near his career averages of 19.4 points per game on 45.9 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from 3, there has been growth in Thompson’s game as of late. 

Let’s get into where we think he finishes this season, as his play will be crucial for the Warriors to come through on their odds to win the Western Conference at WynnBET.

Klay Thompson Return

Thompson got off to a bit of a slow start in his first six games back, but that was mainly due to the lack of playing time. 

Here’s a look at Klay’s numbers since returning:

• First six games: 14.7 PTS, 2.8 REB, 2.0 AST, 37.2% FG, 30.2% from 3 in 21.4 minutes
• Last five games: 18.2 PTS, 4.2 REB, 4.4 AST, 50.0% FG, 46.2% from 3 in 25.9 minutes

I think it’s safe to say that Thompson is starting to find his legs now that he’s back in the grind of an NBA season. The five-time All-Star is coming off his best game of the season on Feb. 3 when he scored 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting (7-for-9 from 3) against the Sacramento Kings. Thompson also added five rebounds and seven assists. 

As he gets more comfortable in the Warriors’ offense, and gets more playing time, Thompson’s numbers should soar in the second half of the season. 

Predicting Klay Thompson’s 2022 Stats

The Warriors haven’t needed to rush Thompson into a huge role this season because of the depth on their roster at the wing and guard positions. 

Andrew Wiggins made his first All-Star team this season, and guard Jordan Poole is averaging a career-high 16.8 points per game. 

There’s no doubt that the Warriors want Thompson to find his old form, but there is no rush to put more on his plate, especially with the Warriors entering Monday’s game with the Oklahoma City Thunder on an eight-game winning streak. 

It is unlikely that Thompson will play in back-to-backs this season, so he’s not going to play every game the rest of the way for Golden State. It makes more sense if the Warriors continue to ease him in, especially if they are winning, so he is a full-go come playoff time. 

So what will Klay finish the season averaging? 

While Thompson’s percentages are down this season, his usage is not. Even though he’s playing just 23.5 minutes per game this season, Thompson is taking 14.0 shots per game. When you compare that to his previous seasons per 36 minutes, Thompson is averaging a career-high in shot attempts per 36. 

He also is registering his highest usage rate of his career (30.3 percent) so far this season. That will likely even out as he plays more minutes, but it is clear that the Warriors intend to get Klay the ball early and often when he’s in the lineup. 

That being said, I don’t expect Thompson to finish the season averaging much more than 18.0 points per game. 

There is no incentive for the Warriors to extend his minutes at a moment's notice, so I’d expect Steve Kerr to continue easing his star guard back into the lineup. While that may mean an increased usage percentage, he still is taking two less shots per game than his career average. 

Thompson is going to be huge for the Warriors’ long-term outlook this season, but I don’t expect his regular season numbers to skyrocket, even with more minutes. Golden State is too balanced of a team for Thompson to take an even bigger share of the workload, especially considering how much he’s seen the ball already despite playing less than his usual minutes.