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Knicks vs. Pacers NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 6 (Can Knicks Cover?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Game 6 matchup between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers.

By Peter Dewey

New York Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein.
New York Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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For the second time this postseason, the New York Knicks have a closeout game on the road in Game 6, but they once again are road underdogs. 

The Indiana Pacers dominated the Knicks in Games 3 and 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, improving their record at home to 5-0 this postseason. However, they are coming off a blowout loss of their own in Game 5 where the Knicks changed their starting lineup and reaped the benefits. 

Does Indiana punch back and force a Game 7?

Oddsmakers sure seem to think it’s possible, setting the Pacers as 5.5-point favorites in this Game 6 clash. 

New York has won two games on the road already this postseason, but it is just 14-14-1 against the spread as road underdog overall in the 2023-24 campaign. The Pacers are 17-16-1 ATS as home favorites, covering in one of the two games in  this series. 

With two days off in between Game 5 and Game 6, both teams should be as fresh as they’ve been all series in this matchup. 

Here’s a look at the Knicks-Pacers Game 6 odds, key players and my best bet: 

Knicks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Knicks +6 (-110)
  • Pacers -6 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Knicks: +195
  • Pacers: -238

Total

  • 215.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Knicks vs. Pacers How to Watch 

  • Date: Friday, May 17
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN
  • Series: Knicks lead 3-2

Knicks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Knicks Injury Report

  • Julius Randle – out
  • Bojan Bogdanovic – out
  • Mitchell Robinson – out
  • OG Anunoby – out

Pacers Injury Report

  • Bennedict Mathurin – out

Knicks vs. Pacers Key Players to Watch

New York Knicks

Isaiah Hartenstein: Isaiah Hartenstein set the tone for the Knicks in Game 5, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds and 17 total rebounds to help the Knicks take 29 more shots than Indiana. It was only the second game this postseason where Hartenstein had double-digit boards, but he’s been solid all around, averaging 9.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. 

Indiana Pacers

Pascal Siakam: Pascal Siakam has turned up his scoring over the last three games with OG Anunoby out of the lineup. He’s shooting 60.5 percent from the field and averaging 20.7 points per game over that stretch. The Pacers need him to continue to take advantage of the Knicks’ lack of size down low. 

Knicks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Indiana is undefeated at home in the playoffs, but I do think the Knicks keep this game close, especially since nine of their 11 games in the playoffs have come down to waning minutes in the fourth quarter.

Tom Thibodeau made his big adjustment in Game 5, moving Miles McBride into the starting lineup and going small. 

While it sets up an unfavorable matchup on Pascal Siakam with the smaller Josh Hart guarding him, the Knicks were able to free up Jalen Brunson – and McBride – on offense by running guard-to-guard pick and rolls.

When Indiana tried to double, McBride was able to take the pass from Brunson and orchestrate a 4-on-3 attacking the cup. If the Pacers switched, the Knicks got the matchup they’ve wanted all series with Andrew Nembhard guarding Brunson. 

During the regular season, the Knicks’ five-man lineup of Brunson, McBride, Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein was one of the best in the NBA.

It posted a net rating of 31.1 across 172 minutes (offensive rating of 138.2 and a defensive rating of 107.1). Thibodeau had this in his bag as an adjustment, and he pulled it out at the right time in Game 5.

Now, the Pacers have a few days off to learn how to counter this, but for a Knicks team that has played heavy minutes all postseason, I think the rest favors them even more. Fresher legs for Brunson and Hart is a must, and let’s not forget that New York nearly stole Game 3 in Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog. 

I think the Knicks at least hang around on Friday – if not pull off the upset – in Indiana. 

Pick: Knicks +6 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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