Kyler Murray, Mac Jones or Jalen Hurts Will Win Wild Card Game Based on This Historic Stat

Throughout the annals of NFL history, at least one hardo football bro will pontificate endlessly into your ear about the indomitable fact that experience matters in the playoffs, especially at the quarterback position.

That's true, but only 56% of the time.

According to Kevin Patra of NFL.com, over the last five years quarterbacks making their first playoff start have a 44.4 win percentage and a solid 21-13 TD/INT ratio. This year, five playoff rookie quarterbacks are starting and two play each other, meaning the historical odds tell us one of the other three should also win their game.

Joe Burrow and Derek Carr are making their playoff debuts against one another, with the Bengals currently set as 5.5-point favorites (meaning if you bet the Bengals they need to win by 6 or more points for you to win) at WynnBET. Because one of those quarterbacks is guaranteed to win, that means, if the 44% odds hold up, either Kyler Murray, Mac Jones or Jalen Hurts will also win their playoff debut. That would equate to a 40% win percentage for rookie quarterbacks (2-of-5), still under the historical trend seen over the last half decade.

So which underdog will it be?

Hurts and the Eagles are 8.5-point underdogs against the Bucs at WynnBET. Murray and the Cardinals are 4-point dogs against the Rams. Jones and the Pats are also 4-point underdogs facing the Bills. All three play on the road.

In addition to picking Carr and the Raiders to upset the Bengals, BetSided betting expert Iain MacMillan explained earlier this week why he's betting on Hurts the Eagles to win at +300 on the moneyline (which team will win the game outright).

Philadelphia runs the ball on 51.16% of plays, which is the highest mark in the NFL. They also average 4.9 yards per carry, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. They can find success on the ground against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 15th in opponent yards per carry. The Bucs' have also allowed 4.9 yards per carry over the last three weeks.

There's also reason to think Murray and the Cardinals can beat LA. First off, they already beat the Rams in LA earlier in the season and were an NFL-best 8-1 on the road this year. Rams quarterback Matt Stafford is also terrible against winning teams, as betting expert Reed Wallach pointed out earlier this week, sporting a 26-57 career record against winning teams.

Not many people believe Mac Jones and the Pats can upset the Bills in Buffalo.

Regardless, the stat above certainly should be considered when making your bets. Don't just listen to the guy yelling about how experience matters in the NFL playoffs. It does help, but it doesn't guarantee a win against a quarterback making their playoff debut.