Betsided

Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 14 (Expect Two Hot Offenses to Regress)

By Ben Heisler

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu looks to continue to make a case for WNBA MVP when they face the Las Vegas Aces in Brooklyn this afternoon.
New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu looks to continue to make a case for WNBA MVP when they face the Las Vegas Aces in Brooklyn this afternoon. / Mitchell Leff/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

Who doesn't like a morning brew and basketball combination?

The New York Liberty (9-14) open the doors to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn bright and early today at 11 a.m. ET as they welcome the Las Vegas Aces (16-7) for the second game of a back-to-back series in New York.

Despite the discrepancy in their records, this has turned into a fun little East-West rivalry. Both teams will now play each other three times in their last four games, with both road teams taking Games 1 and 2. Liberty star guard Sabrina Ionescu, now all the way up to +1200 for WNBA MVP with Chicago Sky forward Candace Parker has been on fire. After putting up the first ever 30-point triple-double in league history during their first matchup, she followed it up with 27 points, five assists and three boards in the follow-up.

It's remarkable to consider that in her last two games vs. the Aces, she's set some sort of record.

Who wins the rubber matchup this morning? More importantly, who's set to cover?

Let's dive into the latest odds for Thursday's super early tip from Brooklyn.

Aces vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Aces -6.5 (-110)
  • Liberty +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Aces -290
  • Liberty +230

Total:

  • 174.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

At some point, I expected both defenses to show up in some capacity, but so far in the series it's been all offense all the time.

Both overs have easily hit as each team is averaging more than 100 points/game in their two games. Las Vegas scored 107 in both games against the Liberty, who have fallen to the bottom half in opponent points/100 possessions (7th). Meanwhile, New York, who had the worst offense in the league the first month of the season, is now ranked third in effective field goal percentage and fourth in 3-point percentage. They've put up an average of 108.5 points per game through both meetings this year.

And that's why I'm taking the under today.

Despite Ionescu's brilliance, I can't see the Liberty keep this sustained level of offensive production going when they haven't done it all season. I get that both teams aren't great defensively right now, ranking in the bottom 5 for opponent points/100 possessions, but given the early start (where unders tend to be more prevalent), as well as an expectation for some sort of regression on both team's side, this appears to be the right side to be on, even though the small sample of games suggests otherwise.

PICK: UNDER 174.5 (-110)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Home/WNBA