Las Vegas Raiders 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

Las Vegas Raiders 2021 Team Outlook

The Las Vegas Raiders finished in second place in the AFC West a season ago, but it hardly feels like an accomplishment. After starting 6-3, including an impressive victory on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs where they put up a 40-burger on the road, they never seemed to ever get in sync; whimpering down the stretch with losses in three of their final four games to end up at 8-8.

For head coach Jon Gruden, at least he can hang his hat on the fact that his Raiders teams have shown some sort of improvement since he returned to wear the silver and black in 2018. Vegas (Oakland in 2018-2019) went from 4-12, to 7-9, and then 8-8 in three years; yet still hasn't sniffed the postseason. Heading into year four of a 10-year contract, Gruden needs to get his team playing on a more consistent, winning level; but the oddsmakers don't see it happening.

More on that in a bit...

Ironically, it ended up being a strong campaign for quarterback Derek Carr, who like the Raiders' record, has improved every season under Gruden. Carr's 27 TDs was his best since 2016, and his touchdown percentage of 5.2% was the second highest of his career.

The Raiders finished 2020 ranked 24th in Pro Football Focus' offensive line rankings, and start 2021 right around where they left off at 26th. Rookie Alex Leatherwood joins Kolton Miller as the two tackles, with Richie Incognito, Andre James and Denzelle Good filling out the middle. They'll miss the veteran Rodney Hudson at center, who now is under center for Kyler Murray in Arizona.

At running back, the Raiders still have Josh Jacobs as their lead back, but the newly acquired Kenyan Drake should start to creep into his backfield shares. Jacobs finished third amongst running backs in rushing attempts last season, gaining over 1,000 rushing yards, but only averaged 3.9 yards per attempt, which won't get it done long term. Drake didn't fare much better in Arizona, but the Raiders expect both to contribute and hopefully remain more fresh by not using up so many attempts with just one player.

At receiver, the Raiders have several talented options, but someone needs to step up with Nelson Agholor now in New England. Henry Ruggs III was the first receiver taken in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he only caught 26 passes his rookie year, despite a robust 17.4 yards/catch. He'll compete with Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow as he looks to take a big step forward.

Darren Waller at tight end remains one of the best stories in the NFL as he returned to the NFL a few years ago after nearly losing his career and his life to drug addiction. Over the past two seasons with the Raiders, he's caught 197 passes for 2,341 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The offense, for the most part, was not the impact issue for the Raiders in 2020. Instead, it was the defense, who ranked 30th out of 32 teams in points allowed. The Raiders brought on Gus Bradley after being with the Los Angeles Chargers the last four seasons, and he'll look to create an improved pass rush with free agent Yannick Ngakoue. Via Athlon Sports, Ngakoue is one of five player in the NFL to have 40-plus sacks, and 15-plus forced fumbles since 2016. He'll pair up at defensive end with Maxx Crosby, with Johnathan Hankins and Quinton Jefferson in the middle.

At linebacker, Nick Kwiatkowski will man middle linebacker with Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton on the outside. Littleton struggled in his first year with the Raiders after signing a large free agent contract, and will need a major bounceback season for Vegas to help keep opposing offenses off the field, especially on third down. The Raiders also signed K.J. Wright after years with the Seahawks.

In the secondary, Trevon Mullen and Casey Hayward will hold down the starting corner spots, with Johnathan Abram and rookie Trevon Moehrig out of TCU in the safety spots.

Las Vegas Raiders 2021 NFL Draft

Las Vegas made a concerted effort to add quality and depth to their struggling defense from a season ago, but in the first round, they shored up the right tackle spot with Alex Leatherwood out of Alabama.

In Round 2, safety Trevon Moehrig from TCU fills an immediate need to play alongside Johnathan Abram. The Raiders had two picks in the third round, adding another safety in Divine Deablo out of Virginia Tech, along with linebacker Malcolm Koonce from Buffalo. The last time the Raiders had a linebacker out of Buffalo, he ended up being traded to Chicago and becoming the highest paid defensive player in the game in Khalil Mack.

Here's how the Raiders rest of the draft shook out.

• Round 4: Tyree Gillespie, S, Missouri
• Round 5: Nate Hobbs, CB, Illinois
• Round 7: Jimmy Morrissey, C, Pittsburgh 

Las Vegas Raiders Team Odds: Division (+2000), Conference (+5000), Super Bowl (+10000)

Despite their 8-8 and second place finish from a season ago, the Raiders are projected to finish way last in the AFC West division based on the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook. The Kansas City Chiefs remain huge favorites at -310 odds, followed by the Los Angeles Chargers at +450, and the Denver Broncos at +600.

For any Vegas fans that want to take a longshot, the Raiders' odds to win the AFC are all the way down the board at +5000, or 50/1. Should they make and win Super Bowl 56? You'd be looking at a 100/1 payday from the fine folks at WynnBET.

Las Vegas Raiders Regular Season Win Total: 7 WINS | OVER (+100), UNDER (-120)

Ben Heisler: 

I've actually found myself impressed at times with what I've seen from the Raiders throughout the Jon Gruden campaign. Especially against the Kansas City Chiefs, they've had plenty of moments where Gruden has out-coached and out-schemed Andy Reid, especially on offense.

The problem is it's fleeting. The Raiders start off hot, then go into the tank and can't ever seem to recover to the point where they're back in playoff contention.

Are they a last place team in most divisions? Of course not, but the AFC West, along with the NFC West might be the second-toughest division in football this year. The Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, the Chargers' win total at WynnBET is all the way up to 9.5, and the Broncos are right behind them at 8.5 as they go "playoffs or bust" with Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock.

Even if the hiring of Gus Bradley substantially improves the defense, the Raiders have shown me nothing that would indicate a team that's ready to contend for the playoffs with this type of competition ahead of them in the division.

Perhaps I'm being too bearish on Las Vegas in 2021, but with improvements expected from the Chargers and Broncos, and the Chiefs being, well, you know, the Chiefs, I don't see how anything more than six wins happens for the Silver and Black.

PREDICTION: UNDER 7 WINS

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 6 WINS (+300)

Donnavan Smoot:

I just want to say for the record that saying the “Las Vegas Raiders” is still weird and I’ll never get used to it.

As for the team, this season is going to be defined by the defense. The Raiders’ defense was terrible last season. They allowed the third-most points in the league, were bottom-10 in yards allowed and created the third-fewest turnovers. 

They added a couple pieces on the defensive line, but the secondary is still very vulnerable and could easily be the downfall of this team.

In spite of the defense trying to lose games for Las Vegas, the offense carried it to an 8-8 record. The Raiders were a top 10 scoring offense and should see a bit of improvement with Kenyan Drake joining the team and Henry Ruggs going into his second season. 

Derek Carr quietly had his best season as a pro in 2020 and could get even better this year. With Jon Gruden’s playcalling, the Raiders’ offense should be able to keep the team in games, but the job it did last year doesn’t seem replicable. 

If the defense even takes a little step forward, Las Vegas could be competing for a playoff spot. If not, the Raiders and the Broncos will be fighting for third place in the division.

PREDICTION: OVER 7 WINS (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+500)

Peter Dewey:

The Jon Gruden era hasn’t gone as planned for the Raiders, as they’ve missed the postseason in three consecutive seasons under Gruden. 

A combination of poor first-round draft picks and a poor defense (likely because of said poor draft picks) has led to the Raiders being favored to finish in last in the AFC West this season. 

I’m going to side with the oddsmakers on this one, especially after the Raiders moved multiple offensive lineman (Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown) this offseason. I’m not sold on Henry Ruggs as a top wideout, and Derek Carr was solid in the 2020 campaign and the Raiders still went 8-8. 

When are we going to start calling this Gruden 10-year deal a failure?

PREDICTION: UNDER 7 WINS (-120)

EXACT WIN TOTAL:  6 WINS (+300)

Iain MacMillan:

You might be surprised to know that the Raiders actually had one of the best passing attacks in the NFL last season. Eighth in yards per game at 263.6, fourth in yards per attempt at 7.7. Also sixth in third down conversion rate.

1.6 giveaways per game killed them, and pair that with only 0.9 takeaways per game which was third last in the NFL. Giving the ball away and not getting any takeaways in return is a momentum killer and it cost them a lot of games last season.

The Raiders defense is also not great. Bottom third in most statistics including 30th in opponent third down conversion rate and 30th in opponent points per game. 

Raiders are really good at some things but really bad at others.

With their win total at seven, I’m actually going to take the over. I think they might be able to get to 8, and a push at 7 is a possibility. This team, while it has its issues, is better than you think.

PREDICTION: OVER 7 WINS (+100)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+600)

Will the Las Vegas Raiders Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-500), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+325)

Ben Heisler: 

Six wins, sadly won't get it done for Las Vegas to reach the postseason this year. Even if they do defy my expectations, I'm not sure how they get past both the Chiefs and Chargers to make a run.

If you've been reading our team-by-team betting previews throughout the offseason, I have three teams coming out of the AFC East this year, leaving only room for one AFC North team (Ravens), one AFC South team (Colts, although that was before the Wentz injury and drama), and the Chiefs and Chargers out of the West.

The Raiders have had brutal second halves the last few seasons after getting off to solid starts. If they can finish what they typically start, I'll happily eat my words. But as it goes now...

Make it four straight years under Gruden with no playoffs for... THE RAIIIIIDERS (Chris Berman voice).

PREDICTION: NO (-500)

Donnavan Smoot:

Sorry Raider fans, y’all will be outside of the playoffs again. There are a few divisions in the NFL that are just too crowded and the AFC West is one of them. There isn’t a lot of movement available when the best team is the Chiefs.

Also, as long as the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the league, all you can expect is for them to lose in shootouts. If that defense comes around, then maybe we can have a conversation. 

PREDICTION: NO (-500)

Peter Dewey: 

The Raiders are facing an uphill battle to make the postseason in 2021 with the Broncos and Chargers both improving this offseason. 

Last year was a great chance for the Raiders, especially with how well Carr played, but they squandered their chance by losing five of their final seven games of the season. 

The only teams the Raiders beat after Week 9 last season were the 5-11 Broncos and the 2-14 New York Jets. And the Jets game was won on a last second heave to Ruggs. 

The Raiders are due to regress with the division improving, and they won’t be a playoff team in 2021.

PREDICTION: NO (-500)

Iain MacMillan:

It’s going to be tough for the Las Vegas Raiders to sniff the playoffs this season. I think they're a better team than a lot of people think, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to bet on them to make the playoffs this season.

I’m not fully sold on Jon Gruden as being a head coach in the NFL again, but if he’s going to prove me wrong, it’s going to be this year.

With that being said, I’m not going to bet on it happening, especially in the AFC West.

PREDICTION: NO (-500)

--

Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey, and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff, and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews here.

--

Are the WynnBET oddsmakers on the right side for the Raiders’ odds this season? 

Get in on the action with the new WynnBET app.