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Let’s Set Odds: Where Will Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield Play Next Season?

By Reed Wallach

Nov 28, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a
Nov 28, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a / Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
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The quarterback carousel continues to spin, but it appears that we are running out of spots for two projected starters in the 2022 NFL season.

Both Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo appear to be the odd men out in their respective situations after this offseason, and are the trendy names on the market.

The Browns acquired Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans, more than likely ending Mayfield's time in Cleveland despite Watson's potential discipline from the NFL.

Meanwhile, Jimmy G was the quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, who were leading in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship, but the team appears poised to start Trey Lance this coming sesaon.

Let's set some odds for where each QB will be starting their season. First, Mayfield.

Odds for Baker Mayfield's Next Team

  • Seattle Seahawks: +175
  • Houston Texans: +250
  • New Orleans Saints: +375
  • Atlanta Falcons: +420
  • Field: +700
  • Cleveland Browns +1500

The Seahawks make sense for Mayfield as they begin a lengthy rebuild after trading Russell Wilson. This is a worthwhile swing for Seattle, who still has Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf on hand and Mayfield is on an expiring contract this coming season.

While the disgruntled Browns QB is done in Cleveland, this is a great buy low opportunity for Seattle, who can afford to forfeit a day three draft pick for the former Heisman Trophy Winner. The team has little pressure to compete this season and can take a swing on Mayfield.

Houston checks in second because the team is also at the beginning of a rebuild, but the team has a somewhat capable project already in Davis Mills and there can be very little gained by putting the polarizing Mayfield in the same QB room as there budding prospect. Yes, Houston struggled last season mightly, but Mills did look decent in stretches, maybe it's not worth Houston to dive into the Mayfield waters.

On the other side of the coin, the Atlanta Falcons signed veteran Marcus Mariota, who is not necessarily the long term answer there. Mayfield could make sense there for a cheap draft pick.

Odds for Jimmy Garoppolo's Next Team

  • Carolina Panthers: +225
  • New Orleans Saints: +350
  • Houston Texans: +425
  • Seattle Seahawks: +500
  • Field: +800
  • San Francisco 49ers: +1000

I set the odds a bit shorter for the more proven teams that may think that Jimmy G improves their chances to contend in 2022. For all his flaws, the 49ers signal caller has had his team in Super Bowl contention twice in the past three seasons.

The Carolina Panthers have been aggressive in the trade market, trading for Sam Darnold last season, and may look to take advantage of a similar distressed asset in Garoppolo. I also look at the Saints, who are a bit closer to contending looking to pluck Jimmy G on an expiring deal for a one year swing at hime.

I mention the field at +800, which I think would be a good bet with my hypothetical odds because I see the market drying up too quickly for a quarterback drive trade. I see the Niners holding on to Jimmy G into training camp, taking the risk of starting the season with him on the roster. However, there's always the chance that a starting quarterback goes down in the preseason and a team is scrambling for a replacement. Enter: Jimmy Garoppolo.

One step further, what if that injury never comes. Will Kyle Shanahan be cool sticking with Garoppolo on the roster for another year? We'll see, but the QB movement may be coming to an end and there's a chance San Fran overplayed their hand.

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