Let’s Set Odds: Where Will Xander Bogaerts Sign in Free Agency

Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2)
Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

This will be an interesting offseason in the MLB. Now that the Houston Astros have been crowned champions the competition for the 2023 World Series begins with free agency.

There are four highly sought after shortstops available and Xander Bogaerts is one of the crown jewels of the free-agent class, so where will the 30-year-old shortstop sign this offseason? Let’s set the odds. 

Let’s Set Odds: What Team Will Sign Xander Bogaerts

  • Philadelphia Phillies +250
  • Atlanta Braves +250
  • Boston Red Sox +300
  • The Field +500

Philadelphia Phillies +250

If I’m Vegas, I’m being very careful with the odds. There are four blue chip shortstop free-agents, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Carlos Correa.

There will be plenty of teams jostling to sign them and some might just switch spots. I like the Phillies to make a run at Bogaerts because this team has shown a propensity to spend in free agency and build a veteran team. Clearly they are close, they were two wins away from a World Series. Their lineup needs some length and Bogaerts could take over at short with Bryson Stott moving over to second base. That would lengthen the lineup, strengthen the defense, and might get Philly over the top. 

Atlanta Braves +250

Like I said, some of these shortstops might just switch spots. If the Braves can’t strike a deal with Swanson, then they could move on to one of the other shortstops. It worked out pretty well, trading for Matt Olson when they lost Freddie Freeman to LA. 

Boston Red Sox +300

I think it is likely that Bogaerts will resign but I can’t make the Red Sox the favorites. They have a contingency plan with Trevor Story and we have seen Chaim Bloom move off of fan favorites like Mookie Betts.

This deal could get a little too rich for Bloom’s blood and Boston seems more interested in signing Rafeal Devers to an extension this offseason. 

The Field +500

This includes the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Mariners, and even the Orioles. There is a big group of teams that look eager to spend money this offseason and have a need up the middle. Philadelphia just showed the rest of the league the value of building through free-agency and that might heat up the offseason hot stove. This will rely heavily on where the other three shortstops in this class end up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up on any of those five teams I named above. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE