Let’s Set Odds: Who Gets No. 1 Seed in Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference standings continue to compress with six teams within three games of the No. 1 seed.

The Chicago Bulls have held the top spot for a majority of the season, but they are struggling with injuries of late, including Lonzo Ball, who will be out about 6-8 weeks with a torn meniscus, per Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Currently, the Bulls are tied atop the East with the Miami Heat, but they seem ripe to fall from the top of the standings with injuries mounting. How should we handicap the Eastern Conference race in late January?

Here's my rankings of who I see most likely to least likely to grab the Eastern Conference's top seed heading into the postseason. Next to each team is their odds to go to the Finals, per WynnBET Sportsbook.

1. Miami Heat (+600)

Things are breaking very nicely for the Heat, who welcomed back Bam Adebayo this week from thumb surgery this week.

Even without him for much of this season, the Heat have pulled into a tie for the No. 1 seed and seem primed to have the Eastern Conference run through South Beach.

Miami is fifth in net rating this season and still growing as a team with a middling remaining strength of schedule. With opposing teams battling injuries as well as potential fatigue from last postseason, the Heat are the likeliest to run away with the top seed.

2. Milwaukee Bucks (+300)

The Bucks are the defending champions and are just two back of the No. 1 seed despite battling some injuries throughout the early portion of the season.

We know Milwaukee is elite and primed for another title run behind Giannis Antetokounmpo's MVP play -- 28 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists -- but we can see the team take it slow down the stretch with eyes on the prize, not the No. 1 seed.

Milwaukee won the title as the No. 3 seed last season and are top 10 on both sides of the ball in offensive and defensive rating, they just may not have the motivation to go get the top spot.

3. Brooklyn Nets (+135)

The Nets have more talent than any Eastern Conference roster, but will they ever play together? Kyrie Irving is in a part time role for the foreseeable and Kevin Durant suffered a sprained MCL over the weekend. Durant will be out 4-6 weeks with his knee ailment and the Nets are going to look to tread water without him.

While Brooklyn is capable of ripping off wins behind the play of James Harden, who is putting up gaudy numbers but still looks to be feeling the effects of his hamstring injury last season. He has lacked explosiveness that he had in the past as the leading man in Houston and his time in Brooklyn. Harden's field goal percentage is below 60% for the first time since his rookie season.

The Nets will likely have their eyes on the postseason and not the No. 1 seed as they wait for Durant to return.

4. Chicago Bulls (+1000)

Chicago got out to a hot start but with injuries to Ball and Zach LaVine, the team is likely going to slide towards the back half of the conference amongst a crowded field.

We have seen the negative regression coming for the Bulls already, posting a -2.9 net rating since the start of January with the sixth worst defense in the NBA, per NBA.com. I expect that to continue for the next several weeks.

5. Philadelphia 76ers (+1200)

Joel Embiid is putting up MVP numbers, notably dropping 50 points in 27 minutes on Wednesday night, but it still seems like a massive lift to propel the Sixers to a second straight No. 1 seed.

As long as Philadelphia holds onto Ben Simmons through the trade deadline and don't use the assets, the Sixers top 10 remaining schedule difficulty will hold them out of the top spot.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers (+4000)

The Cavs have been one of the best stories in the league this season with a unique roster construction around big men like rookie Evan Mobley, potential All Star Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen.

Now, the team has an emerging star at point guard with Darius Garland, but the team is going to feel the effects of the Ricky Rubio injury over the course of the season as the team goes from being the hunter to the hunted.

This is a true playoff team, but not a No. 1 seed.