Let's Set Odds: What Quarter Does Steph Curry Break The 3-Point Record?

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is two 3-pointers away from breaking Ray Allen's record for the most career 3's.
Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is two 3-pointers away from breaking Ray Allen's record for the most career 3's. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

It's not a question of "if," but "when" Warriors point guard Stephen Curry breaks the all-time 3-point record tonight when Golden State travels to New York to face the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

The three-time NBA champion and two-time MVP has averaged 5.38 three-pointers made per game this year, and is coming off a 5-15 downtown shooting performance Monday night against the Indiana Pacers in a 102-100 road win.

The Warriors are on the second game of a back-to-back against a struggling Knicks team that's lost three straight, and have gone just 5-9 at home this season. Golden State is currently listed as a 4.5-point favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook with a slight total of 212.

It seems appropriate that Curry, one of the most transcendent players of the modern day NBA would be able to claim the all-time record in the league's most famous arena, but when during the game will he move into first place? Will it be early on in the first quarter as the Warriors look to get him going? Or perhaps later on in the game?

WynnBET Sportsbook just released an NBA prop for Curry to make history; asking whether he'll hit over or under 1.5 three pointers in the 1st.

Stephen Curry 1st Quarter Made 3-Pointers

  • OVER 1.5 (-200)
  • UNDER 1.5 (+175)

Which Quarter Will Steph Curry Break the All-Time 3-Point Record?

While this particular prop is not available at WynnBET, I created my own set of odds as to which quarter he would break the record in.

  • 1st Quarter: -200
  • 2nd Quarter: +200
  • 3rd Quarter: +325
  • 4th Quarter: +500

1st Quarter: -200

Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has spoken publicly about his star guard's focus on the record over his last few matchups, and mentioned that once it's done, he's more likely to settle in. If that's the case, Kerr will look to get Curry the record sooner rather than later.

Curry has played almost 100% of the first six minutes in every game this year and plays the bulk of his rotation minutes in the 1st and 3rd quarters according to NBARotations.info.

2nd Quarter: +200

Again, purely based off the math, if Curry averages 5.38 three-pointers made per game. That's an average of 1.345 per quarter; meaning he likely ties it in the 1st, and nails it in the 2nd.

Obviously, flow of the game, score, and minutes also play a prominent role as well. He averages 34.3 minutes per game overall this year, which would amount to a 3-pointer made every 6.38 minutes.

The 1st quarter should still be favored by a wide margin, but I think the 2nd quarter is a sneaky value bet.

3rd Quarter: +325

The Knicks would have to play their best defense performance of the season to hold Curry to under two 3-pointers by halftime, but it's certainly possible. New York ranks sixth in the NBA in three pointers made, and 11th in attempts.

Curry over his career has averaged 4.8 3's per game against the Knicks in 20 games played. While that would still end up breaking the record in the 2nd, it's not to say it's impossible.

4th Quarter: +500

Don't bet it.

Unless Curry gets hurt, or in the worst foul trouble of the season, there's almost no chance he breaks it in the 4th quarter tonight at MSG.

The drama, however, would be off the charts. For a nationally televised TNT game, maybe Curry holds back and gives the people what they want.