Let's Set Odds: Where Will Aaron Rodgers Play in 2022?
After a second straight surprising playoff exit at home, Aaron Rodgers left Lambeau Field for perhaps the last time looking as disappointed and dejected as every fan in the stands.
The rumors are abound about his future with the Packers stemming from the discontent he publicly expressed with the organization last year. There's also the speculation over whether the Packers will trade the (potentially back-to-back) MVP and start the Jordan Love era after drafting the latter in the first round two years ago.
Rodgers contract is set up so the Packers, who are projected to be over $40 million over the cap, can trade him before the draft and save over $19 million in 2022 (they would need to eat over $26 million in dead cap space in 2022, but clear their books after that). The fact is, Love has to play soon, or the Packers straight up wasted a first-round pick. I doubt their front office wants to admit that.
So where will Rodgers play in 2022 if he's traded? Here are the most likely destinations, and remember, these odds are based on if he gets traded.
Aaron Rodgers Trade Odds
- Philadelphia Eagles +150
- Denver Broncos +150
- The Field +200
- Pittsburgh Steelers +400
- New York Jets +550
- New York Giants +700
Philadelphia Eagles +150
Rodgers said he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild. The Packers are going to want a king's ransom for their quarterback. This works well on both ends.
The Eagles have three first-round picks this year and five picks in the top 100. They also have a solid quarterback in Jalen Hurts. That's the kind of draft/player capital Green Bay will seek for someone of Rodgers' talent level.
The Eagles also just made the playoffs, have an emerging standout wide receiver in Devonta Smith, a sturdy offensive line and a young offensive-minded head coach who proved his value this year.
This is the best for both parties.
Denver Broncos +150
The Broncos don't have as many first-round picks in this year's draft as the Eagles, but they play in the AFC, which Green Bay would prefer, and they have more talent than Philly, which Rodgers would prefer. The big question becomes, how much of that talent does Green Bay try to grab as part of this deal?
Denver has the No. 9 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and five picks in the Top 100. They could also trade their first rounder next year. But what if the Packers want Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton for Rodgers? Does this landing spot entice Rodgers quite as much? Likely yes.
Peyton Manning won that all-important second Super Bowl with the Broncos and Denver GM George Paton is known as one of the best in the business. I would put them as the favorites, but think the Eagles instant draft capital this year will be as important to this move as anything else.
The Field +200
There's always a scenario in which a team not listed makes a move to get one of the best quarterbacks in league history. We'll set the odds at 2/1.
Pittsburgh Steelers +400
There's a big jump between the favorites and the contenders in the odds here for a reason. The rest of these teams have big issues for either Rodgers or the Packers when it comes to making this deal happen. For the Steelers it comes in trade compensation.
Simply put, Pittsburgh does not have as much to offer as the other teams on this list when it comes to trade assets. The Steelers have their first-round pick this year, three picks in the Top 100 and future picks to offer. Plus they have some players who might be interesting to the Steelers. But at what cost? The Steelers need help themselves to be true contenders. Getting rid of talent is counterproductive to what Rodgers wants.
They do have the cap space to make something happen and their offense has pieces Rodgers would be happy to work with. But on the Packers side, there are other more attractive opportunities out there.
New York Jets +550
The Jets have two picks in the Top 10 of the 2022 NFL Draft and four in the top 40. That's going to be enticing for the Packers. They also have a ton of cap space (over $47 million), which should be enticing for Rodgers. They also have a QB they just drafted No. 2 overall and not enough talent to become instant Super Bowl contenders.
Still, the Jets traded for Brett Favre and perhaps they go all-in for another Packers QB being replaced by a younger signal caller.
New York Giants +700
The Giants have the fifth and seventh picks in the 2022 NFL Draft and five picks in the top 80. That's great for the Packers, but what about Rodgers?
The Giants have no cap space and a terrible roster, highlighted by their sub-par offensive line. That doesn't seem to line up with what Rodgers said about wanting to play for a contender. No, I don't see this happening.