Let’s Set Odds: Who Replaces Quin Snyder as Utah Jazz Head Coach?

It has been four days since Quin Snyder stepped down as the coach of the Utah Jazz.  Doing so after eight years at the helm.  Utah is an organization that is in flux, with potential blockbuster trades on the table, and now a coaching search.  The first for Danny Ainge since he hired Brad Stevens in Boston in 2013.  

The goal here is to set odds for who will take over the Jazz, but to also present the different routes they can go down as a franchise.  Most of these coaching candidates represent a step down a specific path.  Ainge went from Doc Rivers to Brad Stevens in Boston, so he wants someone who is long for the job.  Whatever coach he hires will likely reveal the direction he wants to push Utah in.  

There are certainly plenty of candidates for the position, so I have decided to put them into groups.  I’m not only setting odds of that coaching candidate getting hired, but I’m setting the odds for what direction I believe Utah will go in. 

Obviously, Woj has provided the list of candidates that I am working from, but I'll give you the context of what each hire would mean for the Jazz.

Odds for Utah’s Next Head Coach

All in on Donovan Mitchell +250:

• Johnnie Bryant
• Alex Jensen
• Lamar Skeeter

Fresh Start +500:

• Will Hardy
• Joe Mazzulla
• Charles Lee

Win Now +1000:

• Terry Stotts
• Frank Vogel

All in on Donovan Mitchell

This feels like the logical step for the organization.  Move on from Rudy Gobert and try to hold tight to Mitchell and build around him.  There have been rumors that Mitchell could want out, but Utah should not let him go.  They are not a free-agent destination and will be hard pressed to get a player as good as Mitchell back in the trade.  One of these coaching hires would likely be to appease Mitchell and get the guy he wants running things.  Is it the best organizational strategy to let your 25-year-old shooting guard determine the coaching hire? Probably not, but it’s worse to let your 25-year-old star get away.  Especially when you are the Utah Jazz.  

The Knicks hired Johnny Bryant in the summer of 2020 and many believed that move to be tied to their desire to entice Mitchell out of Utah.  Bryant and Mitchell have a known relationship and this would likely keep him happy.  Jensen and Skeeter are current Jazz assistants and Jensen will be running things until a coach is hired.  You have to assume if it is someone in-house, then Mitchell approves.  

Fresh Start

These candidates are young up-and-coming assistants in the league.  Charles Lee was a candidate for the Lakers job and is an assistant coach in Milwaukee.  Hardy and Mazzulla are both currently on the Boston staff.  Ainge crossed over with Mazzulla for two years, but Hardy was a new hire of Ime Udoka.  

This path assumes that the organization wants a clean slate and to allow a new coach to build something in Utah.  It implies patience and allows the risk of Mitchell forcing his way out.  In many ways I think this path would be best served to move on from Mitchell and Gobert.  Restock the shelves and allow a first-time head coach to grow with young players.  

Win Now

This could also be called the “run it back” group.  Stotts and Vogel are experienced head coaches. Vogel won the 2020 title in L.A. and Stotts had taken Portland to the West Conference Finals in 2019.  

These guys would come in and try to reimagine Quin Snyder’s team and system and see if they can go farther in the playoffs than their predecessor.  This assumes Ainge keeps both Gobert and Mitchell and that Ainge believes in this team as a real contender for an NBA title.  There is almost no reason to bring either guy in just to tear down your roster and saddle Vogel or Stotts with a 20-win team. 

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