Let's Set Odds: Will Someone Break the 40-Yard Dash Record at the NFL Combine?

Simply because the NFL season is over doesn’t mean we can't find an angle for action until pro football games return.

In today’s edition of “How Can I Bet on Football in March," we take a look at the NFL combine going down this week at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the first combine we have had in almost two years after being robbed of the chance to watch it unfold in 2021 due to COVID.

One of the most exciting events at the combine and the only one most fans traditionally focus on is the 40-yard dash. It gives NFL hopefuls a chance to showcase their raw speed and a chance at taking over the current combined record of 4.22. That mark was set by John Ross and helped him get drafted No. 9 by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017. Turns out raw speed does not always equal success in the NFL as Ross has yet to eclipse the 1,000 careers receiving yard mark in five seasons of work.

While Ross holds the official combine record, there have been numerous reports over the years that seem to confirm that Darrell Green ran the 40 in 4.09 seconds in 1986 at training camp. Bo Jackson was also reported to have run the 40 in 4.13 seconds. For reference, Usain Bolt ran the 40 in 4.12 seconds a year and a half after he retired wearing sneakers and a tracksuit. 

So, is there anyone hitting the turf this week that has a shot to break Ross’ official combine record of 4.22 seconds? According to several reports, there is a slim chance that anyone will break his record this season. WynnBET Sportsbook has yet to release odds for this prop but I wanted to throw some hypotheses out there based on consensus numbers and previous personal bests.

Will John Ross’ 4.22 record for the 40-yard-dash be broken at the 2022 combine?  

• YES +650
• NO -1000

Yes + 650

As I see it there is only one reason to be this prop Yes with the information I currently have. That reason is Tariq Woolen. According to Tom Pelissero, Woolen beat the record in training with an electronically timed 4.20. At 6-4, 205, it’s crazy that a guy his size can even get close to that number considering both Ross and Johnson are 5-11, 190-ish. 

While this is far from an official time as far as I am concerned, it is the only bit of hope we have to work with. Even Calvin Austin III said himself that he expects to run in the 4.3 range despite the public pegging him as the fastest guy at the combine and a good bet to go under 4.3.

No - 1000

This is a record that does not get broken very often and has changed hands just three times since 1999. Rondel Menendez held the record of 4.24 from 1999 until 2008 when it was matched by Chris Johnson. The pair held the crown until Ross came along in 2017. Since then, the closest anyone has come has been Henry Ruggs III who ran it in 4.27 in 2020. Again, outright speed is clearly not an indicator of success in the NFL. Adding to this point is the fact that the only other two guys to go under 2.30 in recent memory both went undrafted. 

As it stands, Calvin Austin III and Woolen are expected to put up the best times of the combine in the 40 but their predicted times are not enough to knock Ross off the top of the mountain. While I doubt any have what it takes to go under 4.22, there are a number of other players to keep an eye on who might have the fastest time of the day. Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Baylor’s Kalon Barnes are all contenders for the fastest of the day. 

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE.