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Liberty vs. Aces prediction and odds for WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship

The WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship should be a great matchup, but who will cover the spread?

By Peter Dewey

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu.
New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship between the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces tips off on Tuesday night, as the Aces look to win their second straight Commissioner’s Cup. 

This is the third edition of the game, with Seattle winning the inaugural Commissioner’s Cup in 2021. 

These two squads are by far the best in the WNBA, with the Liberty coming in with a 24-6 record and the Aces sporting a league best 27-3 mark. 

However, their matchup back on Aug. 6 in New York was far from a close game. New York dominated, winning 99-6, handing the Aces by far their biggest loss of the season. 

The Aces played against New York earlier this season in Vegas, winning that matchup by 17 points. So, even though these two teams are the two best in the league, they’ve yet to play a close game against each other. 

How does that affect the odds for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship?

Let’s break them down and how to bet on this matchup: 

Liberty vs. Aces odds, spread and total

Spread:

  • Liberty +7
  • Aces -7

Total:

  • OVER 176.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 176.5 (-110)

Liberty vs. Aces prediction and pick

The Liberty are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, but that feels like a massive line considering how badly they beat Las Vegas earlier this month.

These two teams are both going to be on top of their game with a Commissioner’s Cup at stake, and I don’t think either of their regular season meetings are a reflection of how this matchup will play out this time around.

Here’s how these teams line up amongst several key statistics: 

Offensive Rating

  • Liberty: 108.5 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 114.3 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Defensive Rating

  • Liberty: 99.4 (No. 3 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 96.7 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Net Rating

  • Liberty: 9.2 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 17.6 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Pace

  • Liberty: 96.85 (No. 7 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 98.72 (No. 2 in the WNBA)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

  • Liberty: 53.7% (No. 2 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 56.4% (No. 1 in the WNBA)

3-Point Percentage

  • Liberty: 38.0% (No. 2 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 38.9% (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Rebounding Percentage

  • Liberty: 53.1 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 50.4 % (No. 4 in the WNBA)

Turnovers Per Game

  • Liberty: 14.6 (No. 7 in the WNBA)
  • Aces: 11.8 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Are we sensing a theme here? 

Both of these teams are elite, but the Aces are No. 1 in just about every single statistic one can imagine.

Despite that, the Liberty have the top-line talent to compete with A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and company. Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu are two of the best players in the league, and they have shown they can beat this Aces team.

7.5 points is a fair line given Las Vegas’ play in 2023, but I still think the Liberty can cover in such an important game. 

Pick: Liberty +7.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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