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No. 23 Liberty vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 10

By Josh Yourish

Arkansas Razorbacks running back Raheim Sanders (5)
Arkansas Razorbacks running back Raheim Sanders (5) / Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Arkansas Razorbacks schedule certainly lightened up a bit after a three-game losing streak from the end of September into October. They were able to put together a 52-35 win over BYU, a bye week, and then a 41-27 win over Auburn last week. That may have righted the ship for the 5-3 Razorbacks, but they are nearly a two touchdown favorite on a top 25 team this week.

The Liberty Flames are coming off their bye at 7-1 after also pummeling BYU, 41-14. Their schedule as an independent has been fairly soft, a 37-36 loss to Wake Forest has been their best showing against high-level competition, so this could be a showcase game for Hugh Freeze after signing his contract extension this year. 

Liberty vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Arkansas and Liberty Betting Trends

  • Arkansas is 4-4 ATS
  • Liberty is 4-4 ATS
  • The Over is 6-1-1 in Arkansas games
  • The Over is 4-0 in Liberty’s last four road games
  • Liberty is 4-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records

Liberty vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

So, let me get this straight, Liberty is a Top 25 team in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee and yet they are nearly a two touchdown underdog to Arkansas? I get that these are two separate entities and Vegas is always the smarter of the two, but it was a jarring line to see.

Arkansas has not fixed their defense, they have simply played two bad teams in their past two games. Auburn is 103rd in the country offensively and Robby Ashford still managed to throw for 285 yards and a touchdown. Arkansas is 113th in scoring defense, 121st in total defense, and 129th out of 131 teams against the pass. 

Liberty is a run-first team that has not really been able to beat teams through the air. Jonathan Bennett only completes 57.5% of his passes and averages 7.0 yards per attempt. He has yet to throw for 1,000 yards on the season despite playing seven games. Liberty won’t be able to take advantage of Arkansas’s biggest weakness. 

However, Liberty’s defense is 34th against the run and 25th in total defense. That might be enough to slow down Arkansas’s rushing attack led by KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders. It looks like a rat-line, but I just think it’s too many points not to take Liberty. 

Pick: Liberty +13.5 (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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