Liberty vs. Toledo Prediction and Odds for Boca Raton Bowl (Rockets Overvalued)

Nov 12, 2022; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Liberty Flames running back T.J. Green (2) runs the
Nov 12, 2022; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Liberty Flames running back T.J. Green (2) runs the / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Toledo won the MAC Championship game against Ohio, cashing in as the preseason favorites, and now head to the Boca Raton bowl to face Liberty.

The Flames have had a volatile season, including a win against SEC foe Arkansas, but head coach Hugh Freeze took the Auburn job, and the Flames limped to the finish line, losing their regular season finale to New Mexico State 49-14.

Both teams are inconsistent, but each pose a high level "A" game that ranks among the best in the Group of Five. What will we see in the Boca Raton Bowl? Let's first check out the odds:

Liberty vs. Toledo Odds, Spread and Total

Liberty vs. Toledo Betting Trends

  • Toledo head coach Jason Candle is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in bowl games
  • Toledo didn't cover four in a row before covering in the MAC Championship Game
  • Liberty went 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Liberty didn't cover their last three games
  • Liberty went UNDER in three of four games as an underdog

Liberty vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

I know that nobody wants to trust Liberty after they were blasted by a bottom 10 team in the country in New Mexico State, but I make this game a PK, seeing very little difference between the two teams.

For starters, Liberty's defense will be the best unit on the field, eight in success rate and 13th in EPA/Play. Toledo's offensive line will struggle against an elite Liberty defensive front. The Flames defense has generated the most tackles for loss in the country this season. The Rockets are 115th in tackles for loss allowed and 91st in line yards.

We don't know for sure who will be starting at quarterback for Liberty, but Kaidon Salter proved to be the most effective for what has been a banged up set of QB's this season. The dual threat Salter will be able to rip off chunk plays against a Rockets defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive run rate and bottom 10 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

While Freeze left for Auburn, not many players opted out or hit the transfer portal with the successful Jamey Chadwell coming over from Coastal Carolina. With little drop off, I think that the recent result of the NMSU loss coupled with Toledo's conference title is driving too much positive sentiment in this game.

I'll play back against it and take the Flames as underdogs.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.