Liberty vs. UConn Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 11

Sep 3, 2022; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Connecticut Huskies head coach Jim Mora greets his
Sep 3, 2022; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Connecticut Huskies head coach Jim Mora greets his / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Can an unlikely team go bowling on Saturday?

UConn has not made a bowl game since 2015, but will look to win that elusive sixth game against Liberty at home on Saturday. The Flames have outperformed expectations this season, and had their crowning win last week on the road against Arkansas. Liberty got a stop on an Arkansas two point conversion to secure the victory and the massive upset.

Will Liberty follow it up with a win on the road again, or will the motivated Huskies go bowling? Let's break it down:

Liberty vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Liberty vs. UConn Betting Trends

  • Liberty is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) this season but 1-4 as a favorite
  • UConn is 8-2 ATS this season, including 4-1 at home
  • UCONN has is 2-7-1 to the OVER
  • Liberty has gone OVER in three of five games as a favorite

Liberty vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

This is a great spot to back the Huskies, who have all the motivation and Liberty, who is nursing some key injuries and picked up a massive win against an SEC foe last week. The biggest injury to the Flames is to running back Dae Dae Hunter. Hunter has 850 yards on 129 carries this season and has been the stabilizing force to the Flames offense that has had several quarterbacks rotate in due to injury.

Liberty has got it done on the defensive side of the ball. The unit is 21st in the country in yards per play allowed as well as the national leader in sacks (34) and tackles for loss (84).

While UConn's offense will likely be shut down, I expect its defense to keep a lid on a banged up Flames offense. The Huskies are 60th in rush yards allowed per carry, allowing less than four yards per carry and are sturdy in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 59% of red zone drives, the 43rd best mark in the country.

I'll grab the points in what can be a possible upset with a motivation mismatch.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.